Happy Birthday America! Jean Segura And Mike Moustakas Are Gonna Feast, And The Guardians Look To Break The Braves Winning Streak

RECORD

5-7 (-1.8 units)

HAPPY 4th OF JULY! Hey man, things are starting to look up! We had another two for three day yesterday and cashed both bets relatively easily. The Orioles couldn't hold on to the lead against the Yankees, but the Astros and Rangers cleared over 9.5 years in one of the wildest baseball games we've seen this year. And guess what? The Braves keep winning. They made me sweat it out, but they beat Cleveland 4-2. We're not four for our last six bets. I have some juicy picks for you, brought to you by America. Let's keep it rolling today.

Guardians ML (+110) against the Braves

This is a risk. The Braves offense has been on a historical run lately, a huge reason why the team has won eight games in a row. But they have to lose eventually...don't they? The pitching matchup is what entices me here. Kolby Allard is making his second start of the season. He's 9-23 in his career with a 5.95 ERA, and he's facing a former Cy Young winner in Shane Bieber. I feel that most people should be all over the Guardians as underdogs on paper. The Braves can out-slug anyone, but I think Bieber keeps them in check today.

Jean Segura over 1.5 bases (+120)

This probably seems like a roll of the dice pick, but I like the value here, and the data backs it up. Jean Segura has been one of the worst hitters in baseball this season. His .512 OPS is far and away the lowest of his career. But Adam Wainwright is on the mound for the Cardinals, and he is toast. God bless the guy; he's had a wonderful career, but he's borderline unpitchable right now, sporting a career-worst 7.45 ERA. You have a bad hitter vs. an ineffective pitcher. Something has to give. I give Segura the edge here. These two have had battles, and Segura has won many. He's 10-25 in his career against Wainwright. Waino has given up a whopping 77 hits in 48.1 innings. I expect Segura to add to that total.

Mike Moustakas over 1.5 bases (+195)

Moustakas has been a shell of his former self for a long time, though he's had a nice season so far with the bat. His 106 OPS+ is his highest since his All-Star season in 2019. More importantly, though, he owns Joe Musgrove. He's 4-10 with 3 HR in his career against Musgrove. I almost went with him at +600 to go deep, but I like the value at +195 to get over 1.5 bases. Petco is a big part, so I strayed away from betting him to go deep, but I expect him to reach base multiple times.

All odds come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Follow Barstool Baseball on all platforms, including our YouTube page.