Steven Cheah's Final 2023 NFL Mock Draft
Richard Schultz. Getty Images.It's Draft Day and as the World's Most Accurate Mock Drafter and I'm here to defend my title!
And a reminder that we've got the En Eff El Draft Livestream tonight on all Barstool channels beginning at 8pm ET/7pm CST. See you there!
For reference, here is Mock Draft 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0
I included bets in here and I should note I was 9-1 on my 1st Round picks last year. I think I have weaker intel this year as nobody is really sure about the 4th pick, which is a major pivot point this year, but hopefully we can get somewhere close to last year. I'll have a full blog on my top bets for tonight's NFL Draft coming later this afternoon. Now let's get into the mock!
1) Carolina Panthers (via Chicago Bears) - QB Bryce Young (Alabama)
Bryce Young has a lot of talent, but he's small. Young is half an inch shorter than Russell Wilson and about it took him a lot of work to get up to 204 lbs. His playing weight is probably closer to 190 lbs, which would be ~15 lbs. lighter than Russ. The comp. is Drew Brees, which would be a great pick. But Drew Brees had success with a great Offensive System/Coaching and a great Offensive Line, specifically interior of the Offensive Line. The Panthers have Austin Corbett, Bradley Bozeman, and Brady Christensen from Left Guard to Right Guard. Only one of those guys rank in the top half of their position groups per PFF. Skill positions could be an issue as well with Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, and Hayden Hurst headlining a group looking like it was assembled by my Uncle Jimmy in a Madden fantasy draft. Young's size gives me pause and I just don't think Carolina is ready to have a successful Quarterback.
2) Houston Texans - EDGE Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech)
Credit to Lance Zierlein who originally hatched this theory and I think it has some merit. The Texans wanted Bryce Young, but with Young going #1, do they settle if they don't love a guy? There is so much smoke around C.J. Stroud bombing his S2 test which is now the most important thing in the world. But aside from that, new HC DeMeco Ryans is a Defensive Guy from San Francisco where they took Nick Bosa #2 overall. Going Wilson over Will Anderson Jr., who like Ryans, went to Alabama, is a bold choice, but Wilson's size (6'6" frame clocking in at 271 lbs. with long 33 5/8" inch arms) is better and upside is arguably higher because of that.
3) Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama)
The Cardinals want to trade this pick sooooo bad. Teams I'd watch out for are the Raiders and Titans. To me, those are two teams that not only are QB-needy and close enough to move up, but they're also teams I would peg as C.J. Stroud teams. But at the end of the day I think it'll prove to be too pricey. I think the QB market cools on Thursday and we only see one in the top 3. Will Anderson Jr. is my top rated player so if you stay here, this is a run the card up deal. The Cardinals have a lot of holes, but Anderson will allow them to feel good about one of their EDGE positions.
4) Indianapolis Colts - QB C.J. Stroud (Ohio State)
The Colts are taking a Quarterback at #4, but which one? C.J. Stroud is on the board here. Anthony Richardson reportedly has fans in the building in and new HC Shane Steichen came from the Eagles and coaching Jalen Hurts, can he do more with Richardson? I do think it's rather convenient the whole world thinks this is Will Levis. It's believable and I can see it. I mean this is the same regime that loved Carson Wentz enough to trade for him and Wentz is a comp for Levis. I think Levis is a lot better than that, but it's also known that most teams have the QBs stacked as Young and Stroud is some order with a big gap between QB3. I find it hard to believe the 4th pick is known widely when the 3rd pick is for sale. That would give too clear a runway for the Colts to get leapfrogged for their guy. So I'm going with Levis being a smokescreen and Stroud being the pick. That makes too much sense to me. There are also suggested Stroud teams like the Raiders and Titans who could absolutely trade up so I think Stroud as the 2nd QB Drafted is a great bet.
5) Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos) - DT Jalen Carter (Georgia)
Carter's image definitely took a nosedive recently with the charges coming out but in reality I can't see him falling that far. In fact, his agent, Drew Rosenhaus says they are only meeting with teams with Top 10 picks. He is one of the best players in the Draft and would immediately upgrade the interior of Seattle's line to help get after the NFC West's QBs.
6) Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams) - CB Devon Witherspoon (Illinois)
They traded CB Jeff Okudah, who was a top 10 pick a few seasons ago to the Falcons. So this is a glaring need with a guy they've been heavily linked to. Witherspoon is slight in size at 5'11" 181 lbs. but he is a DOG and just the kind of guy Dan Campbell would love.
7) Las Vegas Raiders - CB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon)
The Raiders have holes everywhere, but with Jimmy G signing with the Raiders, it removes the immediate need for a starting QB. Gonzalez is built like a create-a-player for a Corner at 6'1" 197 lbs. with 32" inch arms and ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. He also fits the new ideal for CBs which is having a WR background. Not only does that help him understand the position and route concepts, but he's got good enough hands to turn bad throws into turnovers.
8) Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Lukas Van Ness (Iowa)
This is the start of where Texas RB Bijan Robinson can go, but I'm not buying it. Tyler Allgeier was pretty good as a rookie and for pass rushers, they're trotting out Bud Dupree and unproven Arnold Ebiketie. Van Ness earned the nickname Hercules from his Greek God looks and other worldly strength. He'd be a great fit in Atlanta.
9) Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers) - OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State)
The Bears need help protecting Justin Fields and Paris Johnson Jr. is getting a lot of Top 10 buzz. Northwestern's Peter Skoronski is a possibility with position flexibility, but Johnson is the more likely choice for Ryan Poles & co.
10) TRADE Houston Texans (via Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints) - QB Will Levis (Kentucky)
Houston trades it's 2nd 1st Rounder (#12 overall) and their 2nd 3rd round pick (#73 overall) to Philadelphia for the #10 overall pick
It's hard to believe that the Texans will go into the DeMeco Ryans era with Davis Mills as the starting QB despite having two top 12 picks. A lot of talk about how if you love a QB you don't pass on him and I understand that. But I do think there has been an overprojection of where these QBs will actually go by the media. Levis is a nice player with a ton of potential, but also had a down year. I got wind closer to the end of the season that he could be the #1 overall pick as he's a personality match for GM Nick Caserio. I think they see QBs start to fall and move up to ensure they get their guy. If it plays out like this, it'd be a big win for Houston as they'd get their primetime EDGE rusher AND their future Franchise QB.
11) Tennessee Titans - QB Anthony Richardson (Florida)
The Titans appear to be the wild card team of the Draft. New GM Ran Carthon comes from San Francisco and is well respected around the league. He didn't sign Ryan Tannehill and he didn't draft Malik Willis. There is a clear youth movement in Nashville and with Levis gone, they may take Richardson here and redshirt him so he's ready to go in 2024.
12) TRADE Philadelphia Eagles (via Houston Texans via Cleveland Browns) - EDGE Nolan Smith (Georgia)
Philadelphia trades it's 1st 1st Rounder (#10 overall) to Houston for the #12 pick and their 2nd 3rd rounder (#73 overall)
The Eagles actually did this the last time they had the #10 pick. They moved down two spots and picked up an extra 3rd rounder. So I have them doing that again this year. There is a lot of chatter that the Eagles LOVE Smith, so I'm actually buying this. He's a bit undersized at 6'2" 238 lbs. with 32 5/8" inch arms. But he did tear up the Combine with a 4.39 40-yard dash. The Eagles not only are a Quarterback factory but an EDGE rusher factory and Brandon Graham is a grandpa in NFL years, so Smith will be a good addition to the rotation with Graham, Haason Reddick, and Josh Sweat.
13) Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets) - TE Dalton Kincaid (Utah)
This pick went to the Packers in the Aaron Rodgers deal and a young QB's best friend is a Tight End. And Kincaid is the best pass catching TE out there. While he's a bit undersized at 6'4" 246 lbs., he's got the unique ability to get open with some nuanced wiggle at the top of his route. Jordan Love gets a new safety valve.
14) New England Patriots - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State)
The Patriots have loved utilizing a Slot WR over the years. Jaxon Smith-Njigba won't be completely limited to the slot at 6'1" 196 lbs, but does operate out of there a lot. The Pats WR corps lacks juice with DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kendrick Bourne. JSN could add some much needed explosiveness to that group.
15) New York Jets (via Green Bay Packers) - OT Broderick Jones (Georgia)
Jets GM Joe Douglas is a former Offensive Lineman and their former 1st round pick OT Mekhi Becton hasn't been able to stay healthy. While he does seem like he's on great weight loss journey to get fitter, their other options are 37 year old Duane Brown and Max Mitchell. The Jets had Broderick Jones in for a Top 30 visit and could help protect Aaron Rodgers immediately.
16) Washington Commanders - OT/OG Peter Skoronski (Northwestern)
The Commanders don't know who will be throwing the ball next year. But whether it's Sam Howell or someone else, they'll need to protect them and Skoronski offers some intriguing tools at #16. He's also got some good position flexibility that could allow him to play either Tackle or Guard.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State)
This would be an incredible homecoming with Joey Porter Jr.'s dad being an all-time Steeler. On the field, JPJ has elite size for the position 6'2" 193 lbs. with an insane 34" inch arm length. The Steelers currently have Patrick Peterson as CB1, so a nice, talented, young CB is just what the doctor ordered.
18) Detroit Lions - DT Calijah Kancey (Pittsburgh)
Lions GM Brad Holmes was with the Rams when they took an undersized DT from Pitt who turned into one of the league's best players. Klancey isn't Aaron Donald, but he fits the profile.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Myles Murphy (Clemson)
The Bucs could go in a number of directions here. They have a need at Offensive Tackle, they are a potential Bijan Robinson team, they've got two very good Linebackers in contract years, and at Quarterback they have an unproven young QB in Kyle Trask (who scored very highly on the S2 test for those that care about that) and Baker Mayfield. But if you look at Jason Licht's 1st Round Draft history, he goes for the elite physical freaks. With the exceptions of Jameis Winston and Vernon Hargreaves, look at these physical monsters at their positions:
2014: WR Mike Evans (6'5" 231 lbs. 4.53 40-yard dash, 35 1/8" inch arms)
2017: TE O.J. Howard (6'6" 251 lbs. 4.51 40-yard dash, 6.85 3-cone drill)
2018: DT Vita Vea (6'4" 347 lbs. 5.10 40-yard dash, 41 bench press reps of 225 lbs.)
2019: LB Devin White (6'0" 237 lbs. 4.42 40-yard dash, 39.5" inch vertical)
2020: Tristan Wirfs (6'5" 320 lbs. 4.85 40-yard dash, 36.5" inch vertical)
2021: Joe Tryon Shoyinka (6'5" 262 lbs. n/a 40-yard dash, 34" inch arms)
2022 (technically 1st pick of the 2nd Round): Logan Hall (6'6" 283 lbs. 4.88 40-yard dash 7.25 3-cone drill)
There is a guy who fits that bill who should be around in this range and it's Clemson DE Myles Murphy. He is 6'5" 268 lbs. and ran a 4.53 40-yard dash and ran a 4.29 short shuttle. On the field, this pick makes sense to add Murphy to a pass rush rotation of Shaq Barrett, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, and Anthony Nelson. He can also kick inside on 3rd downs with his size to provide position versatility. He's almost big enough too if you wanted him to add bulk he could be a 5-technique DE. I mean look at this athleticism!
20) Seattle Seahawks - OT Darnell Wright (Tennessee)
The Seahawks like to draft size at the position in the trenches and at 6'5" 335 lbs. with 33 3/4" inch arms fits that bill. Wright also has good tape as he fared very well against Will Anderson Jr. and other top rushers.
21) Los Angeles Chargers - RB Bijan Robinson (Texas)
The Chargers have an elite pass catching RB in Austin Ekeler who has asked for a trade. Bijan Robinson is an elite pass catching RB that could reset the clock for their backfield. Robinson is an dynamic weapon who has outstanding stop/start explosion but can also split out wide and can both run routes and has elite hands. He'd be a weapon for the Chargers in the up tempo AFC West.
22) Baltimore Ravens - CB Emmanuel Forbes (Mississippi State)
Forbes is a dynamic player on the outside and torn up Indy with a 4.35 40-yard dash. The concern is his weight, which clocked in at 166 lbs., but he's an ultra athlete and has six pick 6s. The dude is a ballhawk and would be a perfect fit in Baltimore.
23) Minnesota Vikings - WR Jordan Addison (USC)
I'm hearing the Vikings are going to go Wide Receiver with their first pick. With Adam Thielen moving on to Carolina it makes sense. They've got Justin Jefferson and not much else. K.J. Osborn doesn't seem to be anything more than a WR3. Minnesota had a lot of the top WRs in for visits so this makes sense. Addison had a down year after transferring from Pitt once Kenny Pickett left, but he was a Belitnikoff winner. He's a little slight at 5'11" 173 lbs. but he's a route running technician and that usually translates early.
24) Jacksonville Jaguars - TE Michael Mayer (Notre Dame)
The Jags placed the Franchise tag on TE Evan Engram, but may not be able to afford him long term. Mayer isn't the fastest (4.7 40-yard dash), but he's polished and versatile. He can catch and block and step in Day 1.
25) New York Giants - CB Deonte Banks (Maryland)
Deonte Banks is getting a lot of steam and may not even be available at this point. The Giants need a lot of help at CB with Adoree Jackson and Cordale Flott. At 6'0" 197 lbs. running a 4.35 with a 42" inch vertical he's got the athleticism to thrive at the next level.
26) Dallas Cowboys - WR Zay Flowers (Boston College)
Flowers is a smaller Receiver at 5'9" 182 lbs. but he is a bull after the catch. The Cowboys have lacked some punch on Offense since Amari Cooper left and he'd be a great pair with CeeDee Lamb. Travis Kelce definitely thinks he can help a team out immediately.
27) Buffalo Bils - WR Quentin Johnston (TCU)
The Bills haven't gotten what they wanted out of Gabe Davis and let go of their slot WR Isaiah Mackenzie. Outside of Stefon Diggs, they lack some explosiveness. Johnston is a bigger Receiver at 6'3" 208 lbs. but he moves like a smaller Receiver. He'd be a nice addition in Buffalo for Josh Allen.
28) Cincinnati Bengals - RB Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama)
There are rumors that Joe Mixon will be released if he doesn't take a paycut, but right now they don't have any great options to replace him with their backup being unproven Trayveon Williams who rushed for 30 yards last year. Gibbs is a dynamic athlete who can both run and catch and is elusive as heck with the ball in his hands.
29) New Orleans Saints (via Denver Broncos) - EDGE Will McDonald IV (Iowa State)
Cam Jordan isn't getting any younger. He's 33 years old and even though they drafted Payton Turner early last year, they still need ton continue to overhaul their pass rush.
30) Philadelphia Eagles - DT Mazi Smith (Michigan)
Mazi Smith is one of the strongest players in this draft having put up a staggering 34 reps of 25. That'll fit in nicely in Philly where Fletcher Cox is 32 years old and could use a rotational DT to give him a break once in awhile.
31) Kansas City Chiefs - OT Anton Harrison (Oklahoma)
The Chiefs need to protect their biggest investment in Patrick Mahomes and their starting Left Tackle, Orlando Brown Jr. signed with Cincinnati. I see the Chiefs going Tackle here and the 6'4" 318 lbs. Harrison is a name that I've heard consistently should land in Round 1.
TLDR:
And be sure to tune into the En Eff El Draft Show tonight starting at 8pm ET.