After Much Deliberation, My Super Bowl Pick Is In. And I Can Feel The Rest Of These Props In My Plums Too. 61-35-4 For The Season.
Nailed conference championship weekend to finish the season 61-35-4. +26, and finished in the money for the SC.
The Super Bowl line opened up at a pick em two weeks ago. I hopped on Philly -.5 on the Barstool Sportsbook, and correctly called it moving to -2.
Even at -2, or -1.5 (as of noon on Sunday on the Barstool Sportsbook) I still like it... I think.
Or should I say I thought.
With the public HAMMERING the Eagles, to tune of 77%, I became very weary this week.
With that much action on the Philadelphia side, shouldn't that line have moved to 4? Or even 5?
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Kansas City Chiefs (16-3, 8-11 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3, 10-9 ATS) -.5 (51)
Thanks Magic.
After some great reassurance from like-minded people on twitter, and focusing on the facts, I've reached a conclusion.
THE FACTS:
Going against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare is nuts. I agree. BUT, the last time KC was here, with plenty of time to prepare, they got their doors blown off by 3 scores.
Tampa achieved that success by getting after Mahomes and making his day a living hell.
Philly can, and will, do just that again today. They were 2 sacks away from setting a team record for most in NFL history, and had the ninth highest sack rate in NFL history this season (11.5%).
This team is as physical a squad as it gets. On both sides of the ball. And they are SO DEEP. They come at you in waves, every down.
Two weeks ago they manhandled a team that banged and bruised everybody in the league all season, San Fran, and made them look soft.
I expect a lot of the same today.
Yes, Chris Jones is a fucking monster. But Philly's offensive line is also elite. As is their run game.
Hurts, who I've been on since day 1, is no slouch despite what the haters want you to think.
And he's only gotten better.
The kid finished second in MVP voting for a reason. He's the real deal. And so is his trio of wide outs who I think will expose the inexperience of K.C.'s rookie-laden secondary today.
Kansas City is 8-11 ATS and is the seventh team to enter the Super Bowl with a losing ATS mark. The past five lost outright. BUT, they are 18-6-1 against-the-spread as an underdog or a favorite of three points or fewer. They have played 32 straight games they either won outright or lost by four points or fewer… very interesting.
(Am I talking myself back out of Philly?)
NO.
Talk all the shit you want about the Eagles "not playing anybody this season", but the Chiefs have not faced a top-10 rush offense per DVOA this season. Now they go up against the best in football. Philly has 3 stud running backs, the aforementioned elite O-line, and a QB who can also run like a gazelle.
(FUN FACT - This will be the seventh Super Bowl matchup of a first-team (Mahomes) and second-team All-Pro QB (Jalen Hurts). The second-team QB won the previous six in a row.)
The way I can see this going off the rails for Philly is if Kansas City jumps out to an early lead. If KC can get the ball first and score, and get lucky with a turnover, enabling them to jump out to a quick lead, they can start putting their foot on the brake and take Philly out of their game, making them play from behind and go pass-heavy.
Obviously, if Philly can play their game, control the tempo, and bang and bruise KC, they win this one easy.
I think this game is going to be much much more physical than people think. With Philly pounding the shit out of the ball, eating a ton of clock, keeping Mahomes and Kelce off the field, and in check, and coming away champions.
THE PLAY = Eagles -.5
Chiefs 24
Eagles 31
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PROPS
Here are the props I'm on today…
Jalen Hurts UNDER 240.5 Total Passing Yards -133
Hurts has only thrown for more than 240 twice in his past nine games. Given my prediction Philly will run the ball down KC's throats all day, this one seems like a lock.
Patrick Mahomes Over 39.5 pass attempts -104
With Mahomes on a bum ankle two weeks ago Reid still had him throw the ball 43 times. Today, playing from behind like I think they will, 40 seems easy.
Miles Sanders Over 56.5 rushing yards -135
He should get at least 15 carries against this KC defense, and he's hit this total twelve times this year.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 47.5 Total Rushing Yards -115
If there is actually a weak point on the Philly defense, it's against the run, and Pacheco has been a beast as the season had progressed and in the playoffs. He should get around 12 or 13 carries today, and he averages close to 5 per rush so do the math.
Juju Smith Schuster UNDER 3.5 Total Receptions -121
Smith-Schuster has been a ghost as the season has progressed. He caught just one pass in the AFC Championship against the Bengals. Not sure if he's lost a step, or the trust of Mahomes, but he's gone the last 4 games with fewer than 4 targets. Against this elite Philly pass defense I see that trend continuing today.
Lock em up and lock em in.
Thanks for reading. It was a fun season. Already looking forward to do it all over again next season.
LET THE BOY WATCH