Two Dogs And Two Favorites. 4 Divisional Playoff Bets I Can Feel In My Plums.
Awful week last week. Rather, awful Sunday. The mission was to go undefeated this post season, 6 for 6 last week, and extend my undefeated streak to 3 weeks. Saturday we cleared the board, nailing all 3 contests. Sunday, different story. Got smoked on both and lost the 3rd and final on Monday Night. So 3-3. Not terrible, but pretty shitty considering Wild Card Weekend is when you can really clean up big time now that the league went for the money grab and extended the number of playoff teams.
Now 57-33-4 overall.
Nonetheless, we're getting back on track today and tomorrow. Let's roll.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8, 9-9 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3, 7-10 ATS) -10 (52.5)
Back in Week 10 the Jags were getting +10 against Kansas City and lost 27-17. That score is somewhat deceiving considering Kansas City averaged 7.8 yards per play to Jacksonville's 5.2 and won by double digits despite being minus-3 in turnover margin. (And Jacksonville recovered an onside kick.)
Since week 12 essentially, the Jags have basically been in the playoffs, playing must-win games and winning six straight.
There's no way on Earth the Chiefs lose at home today, especially with rain in 38-degree temps, but they are far from a team that blows out their competition. They are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10. They are 5-9-1 ATS as a favorite.
The key for Jacksonville today will be defending erd downs, their MAJOR weakness. With a #29 ranking its a glaring hole, and K.C. thrives in such scenarios. If they can keep a body on Kelce, get after Mahomes, and for KC to bring the punt unit onto the field rather than continue to move the chains, I think they can hang around.
THE PLAY = Jaguars +10
Jaguars 21
Chiefs 30
N.Y. Giants (10-7, 14-4 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 8-9 ATS) -8 (48)
The NY Giants are no joke. Brian Daboll is the real deal. And Daniel Jones, thanks to real coaching, finally having what resembles an offensive line, and the most fearsome running back in the league, HEALTHY, and lining up behind him is not only serviceable, he's a winner.
Speaking of winners, the Giants have covered each of the last five weeks. They have covered better than any team this season going an astounding 14-4 ATS.
Conversely, the Eagles haven't covered in their last four games and were only 8-9 ATS.
Philly is no joke either obviously. They pounded the Giants in their first meeting this season, thanks much to sacking Daniel Jones seven times and getting after him on every dropback.
The Giants adjusted in their second game, beefed up the pass protection, kept Jones clean, and played Philly much better. Philly's defense is vulnerable against the run which will be music to Brian Daboll and Saquon Barkley's ears today. I expect them to pound the ball, control the clock and tempo of the game, and keep this game much much closer than people expect.
THE PLAY = Giants +8
Giants 23
Eagles 28
Cincinnati Bengals (13-4, 12-5 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (14-3, 8-9 ATS) -6 (49)
Cincinnati has ruled out starting right guard Alex Cappa (ankle) and left tackle Jonah Williams (knee). They are also without right tackle La'el Collins, who tore his ACL in December. Joe Burrow was running for his life all game last week vs. Baltimore and I expect that to continue on Sunday vs. Sean McDermott and the Bills.
Josh Allen and Buffalo just have to avoid dumb turnovers after giving the ball away like they have three times in three straight games and they should be able to cruise in this one.
THE PLAY = Bills -6
Dallas Cowboys (13-5, 11-7 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (14-4, 12-6 ATS) -4 (46.5)
Dak managed to swing everybody back onto the good side after routing Tampa Bay last week in the WIldcard. But here's the thing, Tampa's defense, their pass defense in particular, sucks. They suck bad. We're talking 29th in the league bad when it comes to interception rate. The 49ers are third, so its more than likely we see the same Dak Prescott that we saw all season, a pick off machine, to reappear Sunday.
Dallas looked incredible last weekend on defense because 1- Dan Quinn is the man and has got next to no credit whatsoever this season for the job he's done coaching Dallas' D into one of the nastiest in the league. And 2- because Micah Parsons is a man possessed, and made Brady's life a living hell from the very first snap until time ran out.
Parsons will be fired up and ready to go Sunday but I expect Shanahan to have his line pushing Dallas around like they're on sleds, with a focused, bludgeoning ground attack. The 49ers elite ground game should have success versus Dallas' middle-of-the-pack rush defense (4.4 ypc).
I can see Dallas having to play from behind in this one, relying on the pass, and Dak losing the battle vs. a defense that had 20 interceptions this season.
THE PLAY = 49ers -4
Cowboys 20
49ers 27
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