Mike Tomlin Is Absurdly Profitable As An Underdog: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 11
Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (we taped on Monday this week so they could be a bit off but that's what we go by for records purposes). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week. I'm treading above .500 but I'd like to get back to a winning week.
Last Week: 2-3
YTD: 26-23-2
New York Jets (6-3, 6-3 ATS) @ New England Patriots (5-4, 5-3-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
NE -3.5
T 38.5
Both these teams are coming off a bye. And Bill Belichick gets his defenses ready after a bye. As the Patriots head coach coming off a bye, unders are 14-8. And even more profitable 7-2 when at home. It feels like the Patriots just have a knack for holding the Jets to extremely low point totals. This feels like a 20-14 type game.
The Stats Say: Under
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, 3-6 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (3-6, 3-6 ATS)
4:05 PM on FOX
DEN -3
T 41.5
This is another under game. I have a stat here that also applies to the previous game. Outdoor Divisional unders are 57-34 since the start of last season. And Denver is one of the best under stadiums in the league. The under is 25-11 in the last 36 games at Mile High. The Broncos have a great defense and their offense sucks. Unders are usually a good bet in their games.
The Stats Say: Under
Dallas Cowboys (6-3, 6-3 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-1, 4-4-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
DAL -2
T 47.5
The 8-1 Vikings being home underdogs feels like a major sign of disrespect. But that just makes me like Dallas even more since it makes such little sense. And the stats back it up. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. They'll bounce back here.
The Stats Say: Cowboys
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4, 6-3 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6, 4-4-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
CIN -5
T 42.5
You can use the outdoor divisional under stat here if you'd like, but I'm going somewhere else. These stats are absurd. Mike Tomlin is 16-3-3 ATS as a home underdog, and he's 26-9-1 ATS as an underdog against a team with a better record. This might feel like an ugly one to bet but it's hard to ignore trends like that.
The Stats Say: Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2, 3-5-1 ATS) @ Los Angeles Chargers
8:20 PM on NBC
KC -7
T 50
This is a good spot for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is 8-4 ATS on the road against AFC West opponents. And he's a perfect 8-0 ATS when favored by 7 points or less. The line was 7 when we taped but has gone down since then so you'll get some good value here.
The Stats Say: Chiefs
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.