The Bills Destroy Bad Teams. And The Packers Are Bad: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 8
Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday morning). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week. I got off hot but have been cold for awhile now. Need to bounce back with a winning week.
Last Week: 3-2
YTD: 19-17
Arizona Cardinals (3-4, 4-3 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-1, 2-4 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
MIN -3.5
T 49
It's a 1 PM ET home game for the Vikings. And that means points will be scored. The over is 12-2-1 in the Vikings last 15 in that spot. The over is also 5-1 in the Vikings last 6 following a bye. The Vikings can score. The Cardinals can score, especially with DeAndre Hopkins back which makes them a whole different offense. I think this could become a shootout.
The Stats Say: Over
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5, 3-3-1 ATS) @ Philadelphia Eagles (6-0, 4-2 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
PHI -10.5
T 43
The Eagles are a perfect 6-0 as they come off their bye. History says that's a good thing. Since 2003, undefeated teams coming off a bye are 24-11 ATS. And they're 12-1 ATS when that game is played at home. It's always tough to stomach laying double digits, especially this season, but the Eagles have shown they're capable of blowing teams out and the Steelers have shown they are certainly capable of getting blown out. Lay the points.
The Stats Say: Eagles
New York Giants (6-1, 6-1 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-3, 4-3 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
SEA -3
T 45
Vegas might continue to disrespect the New York Football Giants, but they just keep winning and winning and winning. I thought the Giants were due for a trap game last week and would lose in Jacksonville. But instead they came back and won a tight one. This team just knows how to win, led by an incredible coaching staff. And the trends are on their side too. Daniel Jones is 13-4 ATS as a road dog in his career. And since 2003, 6-1 teams getting points are 8-1 ATS, and a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road
The Stats Say: Giants
San Francisco 49ers (3-4, 3-4 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
SF -1.5
T 43.5
Kyle Shanahan just quite simply owns Sean McVay. Shanahan has covered 7 of his last 8 matchups against Sean McVay and the 49ers have just blown the Rams out at times. McVay, meanwhile, is only 1-4 ATS as a home dog. The 49ers are just the better football team.
The Stats Say: 49ers
Green Bay Packers (3-4, 2-5 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (5-1, 4-1-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
BUF -10.5
T 47.5
The Bills just kill bad teams, and the Packers might be a bad team. Buffalo is 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 against teams with losing records. And Josh Allen is 9-0 SU and 6-1-2 ATS as a double digit home favorite with an average victory margin of 22 PPG. The Packers are going to have an incredibly bad team keeping up with the Buffalo offense.
The Stats Say: Bills
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.