Mike Vrabel Is Unstoppable With Extra Time To Prepare: Stats and Trends For NFL Week 7
Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday morning). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week. I got off hot but have been cold for awhile now. Need to bounce back with a winning week.
Last Week: 2-4
YTD: 16-15
Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1, 3-3 ATS) @ Tennessee Titans (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
TEN -2.5
T 43.5
Give Mike Vrabel extra time to prepare for a game, and he will make it worth it. Vrabel off a bye is 4-0 both SU and ATS. They’ve won every game by at least 2 touchdowns. And overall with at least 10 days between games, Vrabel is 8-0 both SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 19 PPG. This should be a close divisional battle, but it's hard to ignore a trend that strong.
The Stats Say: Titans
Atlanta Falcons (3-3, 6-0 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
CIN -6.5
T 47.5
The Atlanta Falcons are an insane 6-0 ATS. They would be just the fifth team since 1978 to start a season 7-0 ATS if they cover today. But there's reason to believe they won't. In his career, Joe Burrow is 13-6 ATS against .500 or better teams. Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota is just 11-20-1 ATS following a win in his career. I think the magic streak comes to an end here.
The Stats Say: Bengals
New York Jets (4-2, 4-2 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (2-4, 2-4 ATS)
4:05 PM on CBS
DEN -1.5
T 39.5
So these stats I compiled were earlier this week when I thought Russel Wilson was playing. The stats were that Russel Wilson is 5-12 ATS in his last 17 games as a favorite. He’s 2-8 ATS on short rest in his last 10, averaging just 18.5 PPG in the last 8. Obviously, those mean nothing now with him out for the game. But I still like the Jets here. Zach Wilson is 6-1 ATS in his last 7 overall games and they are clearly a much improved team.
The Stats Say: Jets
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2, 2-4 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-3, 3-3 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
KC -3
T 48.5
Jimmy G is the most profitable underdog quarterback in the league. In his career, he's 16-4 ATS as an underdog. And he’s an even better 12-1 ATS as a dog when the total is 50 or lower. Everyone is going to be on the Chiefs thinking they can't possibly lose back to back games. Fade the public and ride the trends.
The Stats Say: 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4, 2-3-1 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (3-3, 3-3 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
MIA -7
T 44.5
Tua is back which is great news for the Dolphins. He's 10-3 ATS when playing at home in his young career. They're a different team with him under center. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have really struggled in primetime games recently, covering just 4 of their last 15 in that spot.
The Stats Say: Dolphins
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.