I Still Can't Believe Scott Servais Thought It Was A Good Idea To Pitch Robbie Ray In The 9th Inning Yesterday
Everyone always likes to pull a Monday morning quarterback routine regarding managerial decisions. It's only human nature, especially in the postseason. And before I go off here, Scott Servais has done an unbelievable job in Seattle. He is a huge part of what has turned around the culture at T-Mobile park. Just because you make a bad decision doesn't mean you're unworthy of praise. And while I'm about to rip the decision, there is logic behind it. I understand wanting to go with the lefty-on-lefty matchup. Here's the problem. For one, Yordan Álvarez isn't a typical lefty. It's where analytics sometimes become frustrating because while there may be evidence to support the decision, it's a tough sell if we're talking about the eye test.
The truth is Robbie Ray STINKS against the Houston Astros. And for the most part, I try not to look much into how a guy performs against a certain team. All it takes is one great outing to turn your career around, but Robbie Ray's ERA against Houston in 3 starts this year? 10.97. His ERA against everyone else? 3.28. It's probably not a good idea when going up against one of the best power hitters in baseball to pitch a guy who has struggled with the home run ball in the past. Paul Sewald was taken out of the game for Ray and had excellent numbers against Yordan. In an admittedly small sample size, Alvarez was 1 for 7 with 0 extra base power against Sewald. It may have been better to ride with him despite the elevated pitch count.
Baseball is admittedly a game of failure, and if Alvarez is off by one-tenth of a second, we're not having this conversation, but managerial decisions are amplified in October. Ray had pitched 10.2 innings against the Astros this year and gave up six homers, which wouldn't be the worst if not for the fact he was facing one of the five best power hitters in the game. It's not nearly as ridiculous as Buck Showalter not using Zack Britton in the 2016 Wild Card Game, but the moment itself is an absolute gut punch for a team that, up until the 9th inning yesterday, had played flawless, gutsy baseball in the postseason. This is where Seattle is going to prove what they're worth. They had Houston beat yesterday. If they come back and win this thing, game one will be remembered as a blip on the radar, but considering they tagged the best pitcher in the American League for six earned runs, blowing that lead will be tough to overcome.