Sean McVay Is Kliff Kingsbury's Daddy: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 3
Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday morning). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week. Last week was a good one.
Last Week: 4-1
YTD: 6-4
Buffalo Bills (2-0, 2-0 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BUF -5.5
T 53.5
I talked about Tua as an underdog last week, and we're going back to that well again this week after that comeback win. He's now 6-0-1 ATS and 5-2 SU as a dog of more than 3 points. Also, 2-0 home underdogs in Week 3 are 11-3 ATS since 2006. There seems to be some value on Tua and the Dolphins here.
The Stats Say: Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ New England Patriots (1-1, 0-1-1 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
BAL -3
T 43.5
Patriots unders continue to be profitable. They play great defense and it always takes their offense awhile to get going. The proof is in the pudding. The under is 11-3 in the Patriots last 14 September games. And the Ravens offense doesn't always travel well. The under is 12-4 in the Ravens last 16 road games.
The Stats Say: Under
Los Angeles Rams (1-1, 0-2 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
LAR -3.5
T 49
Sean McVay just quite simply owns the Arizona Cardinals. He's 8-1-1 ATS versus the Cardinals in his career. The Rams have covered 7 straight in Arizona. And the Cardinals are always a good fade at home. He's 9-16 ATS at home in his career and the Cardinals haven't covered a home game since last October. The Rams should be a bigger favorite here. Take advantage.
The Stats Say: Rams
Green Bay Packers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
TB -1.5
T 41.5
You wouldn't expect to see a game with two of the greatest quarterbacks ever to have such a low total, but such is life in 2022. Their offenses have struggled and the defenses are suffocating. And that's good news for the Packers. In games with totals lower than 42 points, the under covers 60% of the time since 2018. And if that game is in the first half of the season, they cover 66% of the time (43-22-1 ATS).
The Stats Say: Packers
San Francisco 49ers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
SF -1.5
T 44.5
The under has been on quite a run in primetime games lately. In the last 45 primetime games, the under has hit 30 times. And the under is 6-1 in the Broncos last 7 September home games with an average of just 34 PPG. These offenses have both struggled a lot early in the season and there's no reason to think they'll magically turn it on this week.
The Stats Say: Under
Tommy Stats Parlay Of The Week
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.