Katie Stat's Week 1 Preview (and do not talk to me about App State)
Emilee Chinn. Getty Images.
Thursday was great, Friday will likely be meh, but Saturday…now Saturday will be phenomenal. Watching football for 12+ straight will be phenomenal. Maybe it won't be phenomenal for our physical health, and certainly not mental health for those of us gambling, or playing App State, but it'll be worth it. It is a college football Saturday, I'm ready to be hurt again and love it. But here we are, enojy the stats and please gamble responsibly.
My Card:
Kentucky -16.5 🔒
ECU ttu 21.5
Arkansas -6.5
Ohio State/ND o59
Oregon TTu 17.5
Georgia Tech TTu13.5
Tulsa -6.5
UGA/Oregon u53
Utah/Florida o51
waiting for lines on these:
Michigan 1H
Oklahoma 1H
with likely more to come.
#13 NC State (opened at: -10.5, 54.5) @ ECU, 12:00pm
Matchup
Last played in 2019, NC State won 34-6.
NC State
12th in returning production. Went 9-3 last year. Why is a ranked team only an 11 point favorite against an unranked AAC team? Basically the only question is can they figure out their run game, they lost 92% of their rushing yards, and need their QB Devin Leary to be more mobile. Have one of the best LB rooms in the country, get Payton Wilson back from injury. Most of the 2 deep is back on defense. They’re on the hunt for their second 10+ win season in school history.
Against non-con teams, 1-6 ATS, and the under is 5-1.
ECU
44th in returning production. Coming off of the team’s best rushing attack since 2000, and first winning season (7-5) since 2014. 7 starters back on both sides of the ball.
In true week 1 (not counting 2020), 0-4 ATS, and the under is 4-0. When a dog by 7+, under is 4-1.
UNC (opened at: -1.5, 55.5) @ App State, 12:00pm
Matchup
Last played in 2019, App State won 34-31.
UNC
75th in returning production. Last year, only won at home. Drake Maye is QB1. Had a tune up game the week before vs. Florida A&M. UNC won 56-24, was very ugly for UNC’s defense, and took a bit for the offense to get going. Strong showing for the young QB, and the RB room.
Top receiver, Josh Downs, is a GTD.
Very different team than last year, don’t feel confident in any carry over stats. In 1H, 0-7 ATS in L7 games.
App State
91st in returning production. QB Chase Brice is back. They had the 22nd scoring offense, and 30th scoring defense.
As an underdog, are 8-1 ATS, and under is 4-1. In week 1, under is 5-1. At home, on a 14-1 SU run, won the L7. In 1H, 0-6 ATS in L6 games.
#23 Cincinnati @ #19 Arkansas (opened at: -6, 52), 3:30pm
Never met
Cincinnati
92nd in returning production. No Desmond Ridder, only 4 starters back on defense. Entire OL is back. Bring in LSU RB Corey Kiner, who was LSU’s RB2 last year. QB battle between EMU transfer Ben Bryant and returner Evan Prater, depth chart has them at OR. How much do you trust Luke Fickell’s recruiting?
A lot of turnover on the team, so take stats with a grain of salt. As a dog, under is 9-1. Yea, don’t feel comfortable with others. Were #10 in total defense last year.
Arkansas
79th in returning production. Lost WR Treylon Burks and others, so that only 31% of the team’s receiving yards are back. LB Bumper Pool is back, and a barstool athlete, actually made merch with him. Can they replace receiving and defensive production quickly? QB KJ Jefferson led the team in rushing yards last year.
As a favorite, under is 4-1. This is their first time favored against a ranked team since 2014. In september games, 6-0 ATS.
#11 Oregon @ #3 Georgia (opened at: -17.5, 51.5), 3:30pm
Matchup
Last met in 1977. This georgia team knows what they’re getting in Bo Nix, and somewhat Dan Lanning. Imo Lanning has the upperhand because he knows what Georgia he left behind, Georgia doesn’t know what he’s walking into and his staff.
Oregon
79th in returning production. New HC is Dan Lanning, who has been Georgia’s DC since 2019. How well does he know the program and what Kirby will throw at him? New OC Kenny Dillingham has worked with Bo Nix before at Auburn. LB Noah Sewell leads the defense with former 5 star Justin Flowe. At CB have the #1 CB in the 2021 class. The defense has the pieces to be insane.
New staff and team so take with a grain of salt. In 1H, 2-9 ATS in L11 games.
Georgia
96th in returning production. Had to replace a record number of NFL players. They lost big names, but have talent waiting behind them, the biggest gap will be experience. TE Brock Bowers is back. 71% of receiving yards are back. Lost top 2 RBs, but Kenny McIntosh and Kendall Milton are ready to go. Only 44% of returning production on defense, which is 122nd nationally. DT Jalen Carter might be better than Jordan Davis. Last year Kirby let the defense be exceptional and the offense be simple. With so many stars gone on defense, the offense will have more pressure to do more and not just skate by. Was #2 in total defense, and #2 rushing defense, last year
In 2H, under is 7-1 in the L8 games. In week 1 games, under is 5-0 in the L5.
#7 Utah (opened at: -2.5, 50.5) @ Florida, 7:00pm
Matchup
Last met in 1977. Weather in Salt Lake City has been peaking in the high 90s this week, very dry. In Gainesville, in the high 80s but also raining all week. It will likely be wet on gameday, if not actively raining as of Monday, CHECK THIS LATER IN WEEK. Utah is a popular pick to make the CFP, but then why are they only 3 point favorites over an unranked and building team?
Utah
58th in returning production. Great scoring offense, rushing offense, OL. Lost top 2 LB to the NFL. QB Cam Rising is back after his first offseason as the starter and attention that goes with it. Options and depth all around. Balanced in running vs. passing.
On the road, the L5 went over. In the 2H, over is 10-1-1 in the L12. As a favorite against non-con, 0-4 ATS in the L4, and 1-5 ATS in the L6. Scored an average of 36.1 ppg last year.
Florida
62nd in returning production. Don’t have backup QB Jack Miller, who is out with thumb surgery. Florida gave up last year, they weren’t a fighting team come the end of the year. Anthony Richardson only hit double digit pass attempts 2x last year, what will he look like with a full offseason of attention?
New coaching staff, and a team that hasn’t given up, so take it with a grain of salt. In 1H, 0-11 ATS in L11 games. As a dog against non-con, 0-4 ATS in the L4, and 1-5 ATS in the L6.
#5 Notre Dame @ #2 Ohio State (opened at: -16.5, 58.5), 7:30pm
Last met in 2016, Ohio State won 44-28.
Notre Dame
93rd in returning production. The Marcus Freeman era is here, very defensive minded. Tyler Buchner is QB1. Biggest receiver is TE Michael Mayer, do need more receiving options. Their #2 WR, Avery Davis, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Pre-season all-american OL Jarrett Patterson seems questionable, likely a gametime decision.
In 1H, 8-0 ATS in L8 games. In regular season games, 7-0 ATS in the L7.
Ohio State
24th in returning production. Bring in Jim Knowles to be DC, from Ok State. Last year their biggest issue was the secondary, can Knowles fix it, and how much do you believe Knowles can fix it quick? Does Notre Dame have an answer for the trio of CJ Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson, and JSN? Ohio State lost week 2 to Oregon as a 14.5 favorite, they remember this loss. Last year has the #1 total offense.
In 2H, regular season games, 0-5 ATS. In week 1 games, over is 7-0 in L7. Against ranked teams, 1-5 ATS in the L6. When favored 14+ over a ranked team, 1-7 ATS in the L8, and the under is 9-1 in the L10 games.
FSU @ LSU (opened at: -3.5, 51.5), 7:30pm on Sunday
Last met in 1991.
FSU
11th in returning production. Boat raced Duquesne last week, 47-7. Had 3 RBs over 100 yards. All TDs were rushing. Hard otherwise to read stats since Duquesne is that bad. They’ve had to replace their top rusher. QB Jordan Travis is back, and looked great last week, getting less reps running, so will likely stay healthier. They’ve gotten the rust off, now they face actual talent.
L7 games, FSU is 6-1 ATS in 1H. As away team/away dog, under is 5-1. As an underdog, under is 7-1 in the L8.
LSU
82nd in returning production. Brian Kelly era. He has picked a QB1, but won’t announce it. Between Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier; odds are it’ll leak before kickoff. Only 3 starters on each side of the ball are back. CB Eli Ricks transferred to Alabama. Get WR Kayshon Boutte, back healthy, added to a deep WR room. Have Penn State’s RB Noah Cain. Have 8th overall recruit coming in, LB Harold Perkins. 4 secondary starters could come from the portal. Have a lot of transfers all over the field, but do they mesh well and quickly? Were #114 in rushing offense last year.
Please take stats with grain of salt, lot of turnover. In non-con games, over is 5-1. In 2H, 2-11 ATS in L13 games. Brian Kelly has won the L40 games SU, when his team is favored.
Straight Stats for other games in the slate (which what I think the rest of my blogs will look like after today)
Alabama
Against non-con teams, 5-0 ATS in the L5, under is 5-1-1 in the L7 games.
In true week 1 (no 2020), 6-0 ATS, in the L6.
This is their first non-neutral week 1 game since 2011.
#7 in total offense last year, #7 in total defense, and #4 in rushing defense,
Baylor
At home, 6-1 ATS in the L7.
In true week 1 (no 2020), 0-6 ATS in the L6.
Boise State
As away team, 5-1 ATS, and under is 5-0-1 in the L5.
As an away dog, 6-1 ATS in L7.
In week 1, 6-0-1 ATS in L7, and over is 4-0-1 in the L5.
BYU
In 1H, over is 9-2 in the L11, and 5-0 in the L5.
In 2H, under is 12-1-1 in the L14 games.
Cal
At home against non-con, 0-1-4 ATS in the L4.
Clemson
In 2H, 5-1 ATS in L6 games.
In 1H for the 2021 season, under was 9-3.
Against P5 teams, 5-0 ATS in the L5 games.
In 2H regular season, under is 11-2 in the L13 games, last year 2H unders were 9-3.
Were #8 in total defense last year, #7 in rush defense.
Coastal Carolina
In 1H, 1-5 ATS in L6 games.
#4 in total offense last year.
Georgia Tech
In 2H, under is 5-0 in the L5 games.
In non-cons, under is 4-0 in the L4, and 8-2 in the L10.
At home, 1-6 ATS in the L7.
Houston
On the road, over is 5-1-1 in the L7.
Were #6 in total defense last year.
Iowa
In 1H, 1-8 ATS in L9 games, and 0-5 in L5.
Against non-con, under is 4-0 in the L4.
Were #121 in total offense last year, but #16 in total defense.
Iowa State
In 1H, 1-6 ATS in L7 games.
Against non-con, under is 6-0, in the L6.
Were #9 in total defense last year.
Kansas State
In 1H, 5-1 ATS in L6 games.
Kentucky
Won’t have RB1 Chris Rodriguez Jr due to suspension from off season DUI
At home against non-con, 6-0 ATS in the L6. Against non-con, 8-0 ATS in the L8.
As a home favorite, over is 7-0 in the L7, and 10-1 in the L11.
Louisville
In 1H, over is 5-0 in L5 games.
Maryland
In 2H, over is 5-1 in the L6 games.
Miami
Miami is 13-0 SU at home openers at Hard Rock.
Michigan
As a home favorite, under is 7-1 in the L8.
In 1H, 6-0 ATS in L6 games.
In 1H regular season, under is 6-1 in L7 games.
Last season went 11-3 ATS
In 2H regular season, over is 9-1 in L10 games.
Mississippi State
In 2H regular season, over is 7-0 in the L7 games, and 12-2 in the L14.
Were #130, aka dead last, in rushing offense, thank you air raid.
Nebraska
Against non-con, under is 7-1 from 8.
Ole Miss
In 1H, under is 7-1 in the L8 games.
#6 in total offense last year
Oregon State
In 1H, under is 5-0 in L5, and 7-1-1 in the L9 games.
In week 1 games, 0-6 ATS in the L6.
At home, 6-0 ATS in L6. As home favorite, 5-1 ATS in L6.
When favored by <7, 0-4 su and ats in l4.< p>
Rutgers
On the road, under is 7-0 in the L7.
As a road dog, 7-1 ATS in the L8. That said, the 1 loss is the most recent. L4 went under.
Were #120 in total offense last year
SMU
As an away team, 1-7 ATS in the L8.
As an away favorite, 0-5 ATS in L5, and 2-9 ATS in the L11.
South Florida
Against ranked teams, 5-0 ATS in L5 games.
At home against non-con, 5-1 ATS in the L6.
In true week 1 (no 2020), 0-5 ATS and under ins 5-0 in L5
Stanford
In 1H, 0-7 ATS in L7 games.
In week 1, under is 6-1-1 in the L8.
Were #122 in total offense last year, #126 in rushing offense, #127 in rushing defense.
Syracuse
In 1H, 0-5 ATS in L5 games.
In true week 1 (no 2020), 5-1 ATS in L6.
Texas A&M
At home against non-con, 9-1 ATS in the L10.
Against unranked teams, over is 5-1.
In true week 1 (no 2020), 6-0-1 ATS in the L7 games.
Were #14 in total defense last year.
Tulsa
On the road against non-con, 5-0 ATS in the L5, and 7-1 ATS in the L8.
UCLA
In 1H, 5-0 for the over in L5 games.
In week 1 games, 1-8 ATS in the L9.
Utah State
Against non-con teams, the under is 5-0 in the L5.
UTEP
Against ranked teams, 0-7 ATS in L7 games.
Virginia
At home, under is 6-1 in the L7.
Last year, had the #3 total offense, #123 rush defense,
Washington State
in 1H in the regular season, 9-1 ATS in L10.
In non-con, under is 5-0 in the L5, and 7-1 ATS in the L8.
If you do gamble, please do so responsibly AND on the Barstool Sportsbook