There Is No Pot Of Gold At The End Of The Season For The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
I decided to show some uplifting Hawaii highlights before I rip into how bad this season is going to be. What better way to show off Hawaii than the glory days of Timmy Chang, who has now taken over the programs as Head Coach ? The bad news is Chang is on the sideline not throwing the ball.
One final reminder... I want nothing more than Hawaii to succeed. A few years ago I gave out Hawaii 30-1 to win the Mountain West, was up all night tweeting about QB Cole McDonald and was distraught when they couldn't get by Boise St in that conference final. It's become a cliche line, but watching the Hawaii game late into the night by yourself is a tradition like no other. It's way more fun when Hawaii is good.
With all that said, sometimes you have to call it like it is, and this year's Hawaii team is not good, in fact they are far from it.
Hawaii UNDER 4.5 WINS -118
Let's start with Chang. He's a great hire in the sense that he's an alum, he loves the program, knows the program , and cares about the program but it's still his first year as a Head Coach. He is going to take his lumps.
Continue with the fact that Hawaii ranks dead last in returning production according to the likes of Bill Connelly and Phil Steele. As well as QB Chevan Cordeiro is gone and they return 5 total starters (one of the lowest totals in all of college football). Hawaii is on 3 consecutive years of bad recruiting classes. There's not much to be excited about.
The respectable Offensive ranks last season (67th in ppg, 41st in pass yards per game) will all take a hit with just 4 back on offense and a new QB in place.
The sub par (see BADDDD) Defensive ranks are likely here to stay. In 2021, Hawaii ranked :
- 93rd in ppg allowed
- 106th in yards per game allowed
- 119th in opponents 3rd down conversion %
- 74th in rush yards allowed per game
- 122nd in pass yards allowed per game
- 97th in sack %
The defense adds a handful of Power 5 transfers, but there's not a ton to love with just 1 starter back and a new coordinator in place.
The schedule is always where you can truly decipher what to make of a team's win total. This schedule does no real favors. Hawaii is projected to be favored in just 2 of it's 13 games (Duquesne and New Mexico St) and the New Mexico St game will be a very small number.
What's more common is Hawaii catching points … a lot of them. The Rainbow Warriors are likely to be double digit dogs in as many as 7 games (WKU, Michigan,San Diego St, Colorado St, Fresno St, Utah St and San Jose St)
The swing games are : Vandy in Week 0 (line is -6.5 Vandy), Nevada, Wyoming and UNLV.
The big thing of those four games are they are all at home, however in order to hit the number they'll need to take 3 of those 4 games. I find that to be a tall task.
The small possibility is that Chang is an offensive wizard in waiting and could find lightning in a bottle and make this team super fun with run and shoot , score a ton and be pesky. Maybe they steal a few in conference and take care of business on the island (always a tricky place to place) and flirt with bowl eligibility. What's more likely is Chang takes his first year lumps a sub par roster with sub par talent and goes 3-10 , 2-12, or at best 4-9. Those scenarios all cash the UNDER if you ride the UNDER 4.5 Wins on The Barstool Sportsbook, which is my 2nd favorite Win Total this season.
* Previously released Win Totals-*
Air Force Over 8.5
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