The Last Day Of The NBA Season Could Very Well Impact Who Wins The NBA Title

The day has finally arrived. Can you believe today is the last day of then NBA regular season? I know this is how time and calendars work, but it still feels wild to me. These last 6+ months have been a rollercoaster of emotion for nearly every fanbase not named the Suns fans who have watched dominance from the jump. We've seen some crazy shit in terms of individual performances, we've had some surprise teams that ended up being way better than expected, we had some blockbuster trades and a million awesome moments in between.

As fun as all that stuff may have been, everything comes down to today. It's not often that the final day of the season has so many potential playoff implications. It's a reality that how today shakes out could absolutely determine who wins the NBA title. This is especially true when you start looking at the Eastern Conference. All in all, there are 15 games on the schedule today which for my money is a decent way to spend your Sunday. What, you're going to watch something like the Masters when you could instead watch ATL/HOU with a potential play in seed on the line? Different strokes for different folks I guess.

So I figured with such a massive day that could have gigantic postseason implications, let's run through everything before the games tip off this afternoon. To keep it simple we'll go by conference

Eastern Conference

As always, let's begin by setting the table and seeing where things stand entering today's games

The only seeds that are locked in heading into today's action are the Heat at #1, the Raptors at #5 and the Bulls at #6. That means seeds 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 are up for grabs which seems pretty important. The interesting twist to the race in the East is we're going to know a pretty big domino before the 7pm games start. The Bucks (resting everyone) are playing the Cavs at 3:30pm. The Cavs desperately want to win that game so they can put themselves in a position to potentially host the play in at the 7 seed. It also would prevent them from dropping potentially dropping into the 9/10 side of the bracket where one bad shooting game can end your season. 

So much of how the East race and playoff paths might look is dependent on the result of this game. If the Bucks win, that means the Celtics with a win against the Grizzlies (7pm) would lock them into the 3 seed, which means a first round date with the Bulls. If the Bucks lose to the Cavs which given the circumstances of that game seems likely, the Celtics are now presented with some options. They could try and win and get up to the 2 seed which would be valuable in terms of homecourt should they be fortunate enough to advance. The downside is that might mean a date with Kevin Durant. If the Celts lose today and the Sixers beat the Pistons, Boston moves into 4th and has a date with the Raptors. The Celtics aren't resting anyone, so we'll see how those minutes are managed based on the MIL result and what that means for their seeding once the game starts.

If both BOS and MIL lose today and PHI wins, they get the 3. If everyone loses, things stay as you see in that picture above. Everyone get all that? Here's why this is all so important when you talk about the playoff race. I don't want to sound mean, but MIL/BOS/PHI are all trying to play the Bulls in Round 1. It's not personal, they're just sliding right now. Not only that, but if you think BKN finishes 7 and can pull off the upset, you'd have homecourt in that potential 2nd round matchup. Each team technically has a path to that 3 spot, some just control their own destiny more than others. If you're the Sixers, you'd definitely want to face the Bulls (4-0) than the Raptors (1-3). My guess is the Bucks and Celtics would want to face the Bulls over the potential of the Nets. That's the thing though, there's really no guarantee the Nets finish 7th. So perhaps going for the 2 seed if you can get it is actually the play, especially if you think you can beat BKN anyway. Essentially, who comes out of the East could very well depend on today's results. That's pretty wild.

Things are just as crazy in the play in too if you care about that. If the Cavs win, they at least lock in 8th. The Hawks have the Rockets and the Hornets play the Wizards, only we'll know what the Hawks will need to do by their tip off (7pm) with both CLE and CHA already being done. Would it be the craziest thing if we saw someone like the Hawks either have homecourt in the 9 spot or perhaps even get up to 8 and then Trae goes nuts and they pull off an upset? I feel like we just witnessed that so it's entirely possible.

We have the potential for things to get even crazier once you start talking about the Nets who are playing the Pacers (on a B2B). We live in a world where they could drop to the 9/10 side of the bracket and could very well miss the playoffs entirely. For that to happen BKN has to lose, the Cavs win, the Hawks lose, and the Hornets win. Got that? Or, if the Nets lose and the Cavs/Hawks/Hornets all win, the Nets drop. They play at 3:30pm which is the same time as the Hawks, Hornets, and Cavs so we're going to see these teams all react in real time. They all want wins for their own reasons, so for maximum chaos, we all should be rooting for the Pacers.

Western Conference

Just like in the East, let's have a look at how things stand entering today in the West

Admittedly, not as much drama and chaos on this side. Things are mostly locked up at the top and the bottom which means the intrigue comes from the middle. I think it's pretty obvious what every one  of the 3-6 teams are thinking heading into the playoffs. How can you avoid the Suns for as long as possible? There's no shame in wanting to position yourself to the side of the bracket where you might not have to worry about that wagon of a team until a potential WCF. They lost 17 times all goddamn year. 

Our first big matchup is the 3/4 seed. Remember, whoever is 4 has a 2nd round date with the Suns. The Warriors are on the road to play the Pelicans (on a B2B) and the Mavs host the Spurs (on a B2B). If the Warriors win today, they get 3 and Mavs get 4. If the Warriors lose and Mavs win, they get 4 and Mavs get 3. That's pretty easy and will absolutely impact what a team like the Nuggets would want to do. If the Warriors fall out of 3, the Nuggets are definitely going to want to move into the 5 spot. That's a way better matchup for the Nuggets than Dallas (3-1 vs 1-2). While that would mean an earlier date with the Suns, you at least have a better shot at the first round. If the Warriors win, the Nuggets are going to want to stay where they are. The Jazz play the Blazers so a win there looks pretty good.

If you're the Warriors, what would you do? They had much more success against the Jazz (3-1) this season, plus that team feels like it's about to reach the end of the line of that core. The thing is, all these games are happening at the same time so there's no real way to plan for anything. You have to play to win. Surely they wouldn't tank the game only to see the Jazz somehow lose and now they have Denver anyway. 

Then what about Memphis? They were 3-1 vs DEN, 3-1 vs GS, and 2-1 vs UTA during the year. You could make the case it doesn't matter which team they end up seeing in the 2nd round, they'll feel confident against them all. It really goes to show you how ridiculous the Grizzlies season was, let's not forget about them. Given the news that Murray/MPJ probably won't return this postseason, you would think the Grizzlies want a DEN/GS 3-6 matchup because since the Nuggets tend to play GS well, that's an ideal Round 2 opponent for Memphis that has a real shot of coming to fruition. That certainly makes their path to the Finals "easier" on paper. 

If that happens and the Grizzlies are able to make a WCF against the Suns, I'll just say this. Memphis was 2-1 vs the Suns on the season. Do with that what you will.

So as you can see, so much of what we could potentially see over the next few months all comes down to what happens today, on the final day of the year. You can't tell me that's not awesome. Every game matters! You could even get into lottery odds for the teams that stink if you wanted. In normal seasons I feel like we only have a handful of games with this type of significance. Like a few years ago when DEN/MIN played on the last day and the winner went to the playoffs. But I can't remember a time when basically every single playoff seed is impacted by what today's results end up being.

I say bring on the chaos in what should be an awesome day of basketball.