Every Single Damn Thing You Need To Know About Thursday's Sweet 16 Games
Folks, we made it. It's March. It's the NCAA Tournament. We have the Barstool Sportsbook live in a handful of states and there's no better time to download it than this month. What I plan on doing on the blog each day is this preview. Everything you need to know. Schedule, storylines, picks, if you want something different let me know and I'll adjust. It's March. It's all about adjustments in order to survive and advance. Let's get into it.
Schedule
Bracket
Clean for the second weekend so far. Still looks weird with a 15 seed, an 11 seed and a 10 seed. Also think this might be the new trend. Two years in a row we saw a 15 seed here and mayhem on one side of the bracket.
Storylines for every game
1. Will this be Coach K's last game - Duh, obvious one here. It's the storyline of the Tournament. Ever since K announced his retirement in June people drew up the two scenarios. He wins the entire thing or loses in dramatic fashion. It's an interesting matchup against Texas Tech too with the way Tech defends. They are elite defensively and can match up well against Duke. Remember Duke is an average shooting team. They rely on getting to the midrange and in. Tech's no-middle defense takes that away. There's also the health of AJ Griffin who is the one good shooter on Duke. He's going to play but at what percentage are we talking about here. For Tech the offense has to be consistent. Duke struggles with a motion offense and typically shifty guards. It's why we saw someone like Charlie Moore tear them up during the regular season. Tech doesn't necessarily have a go-to guy, but Adonis Arms can create some havoc.
2. Gonzaga's run - I know people like to shit on Gonzaga. You won't get that from me. I don't care about their conference. They've made two title games in 5 years and were a call/bum ankle away from likely beating UNC. They got their ass kicked by Baylor, nothing close there. But they were still there. Now they have another legit chance at getting back to the title game which is tough to do on a historical level. The difference this year? Their defense. That's what Chet brings more than anything else. Last year Gonzaga relied on offense and Jalen Suggs being a freak and surrounded with NBA talent. This year is slightly different. That said, the game against Arkansas is intriguing because Arkansas is more than comfortable playing fast. The biggest problem for Arkansas though is they aren't a good shooting team. JD Notae can get hot, but they rely on scoring inside. Tough to do against Chet. It's also tough to stretch this Gonzaga defense out like a typical two-big roster.
3. 2018 revenge game - Michigan was supposed to be here then not supposed to be here then supposed to be here again. That's what happens when a top-5 preseason team ends up struggling during the regular season then getting hot late. They aren't a typical 11 seed. Rarely do you see a preseason top-5 team end up like that. They have Hunter Dickinson who is a monster and developed more of an outside shot. More importantly they are starting to get Caleb Houstan looking like the recruit he was. From a straight roster standpoint they are sort of similar to Nova. Experienced guard, big guy and a bunch of versatile wings. I am curious to see how Nova defends Dickinson. Do they let Eric Dixon play him straight up, where do the doubles come from, etc. What Michigan does well that's worth noting in this game is running guys off the 3pt line. It's part of Howard's coaching strategy. That's key against Nova except Nova is awesome at adjusting to that. The offensive theory for Nova is simple. Pump fakes, drive until there is help, kick the ball, rotate until there's an open shot. It's why defenses have to be disciplined against them. We'll see Gillespie be used in the post and inverting the offense too.
4. Arizona's return to glory - You could make a legit case that Arizona has looked like the best team in the country all year. At the same time Houston is doing Houston things. I doubted them, that's on me. I didn't trust them when they lost Mark and Sasser but Kelvin Sampson is one of the best coaches in the game. Can't even argue that. They are an ELITE offensive rebounding team and we saw TCU give Arizona trouble with that. Arizona wants to fly around and what people tend to forget because of how fast they play is how good they are defensively. It helps when you have Koloko at the rim and can gamble a little. Something worth watching here? Houston is 327th in the country in free throw percentage. In a word, yikes. This is expected to be a close game and if it is can Houston hit the free throws to seal the game or not give away points.
Picks
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12-7-1 in the first round
Under 155 Arkansas/Gonzaga
Villanova -5
Texas Tech -1
Under 145.5 Arizona/Houston