Katie Stats' Bowl Season Betting Guide
AJ Mast. Shutterstock Images.Last one of the year. Thank you for everyone who has read any of these throughout the season. It takes numerous hours to put together these, so you reading any part of these is greatly appreciated. I'd advise to not bet too far in advance for any game, since there are last minute cancelations and opt outs everywhere. Positive vibes only.
#12 Pitt (11-2) vs. #10 Michigan State (10-2), 7:00 on December 30th
Matchup:
Pitt: No Kenny Pickett.
#3 scoring offense at 43 ppg
#6 passing offense at 350.2 ypg
#5 total offense at 502.9 ypg
#6 rushing defense at 91.77 ypg
#106 passing defense at 257.4 ypg
MSU: No Kenneth Walker III.
#18 rushing defense at 117.25 ypg
#130 passing defense at 337.7 ypg
#116 total defense at 454.9 ypg
Pitt: Offensive Coordinator, Mark Whipple, has left for Nebraska.
Are 4-1 ATS in L5.
Over is 6-0 in L6 non-conference games.
0-4 ATS in their L4 bowls as a favorite.
5-0 ATS after scoring 40+ in a game.
7-1 ATS after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in a game.
Are 8-4 on their Team Totals, opponents’ are 5-7.
Michigan State: How much can they improve their passing defense in a month?
Over is 4-1 in the L5.
Over is 8-0 after having 450+ total yards in a game.
When an underdog by less than 7, the L4 have gone over.
9-3 in team totals for the year, opponents’ TT are 5-7.
#4 Cincinnati (13-0) vs. #1 Alabama (12-1), 3:30 on December 31st
Matchup:
Cincy:
#8 scoring offense at 39.2 ppg
#4 scoring defense at 16.1 ppg
#2 passing defense at 168.3 ypg
#7 total defense at 305.8 ypg
Alabama:
#4 scoring offense at 42.5 ppg
#7 passing offense at 347.9 ypg
#6 total offense at 495.5 ypg
#20 scoring defense at 20.2 ppg
#4 rushing defense at 82.77 ypg
#8 total defense at 306.1 ypg
Cincy: Are they real? This will be a huge test of their secondary.
6-0 ATS against teams with a winning record
4-0 ATS as an underdog.
Alabama: Can they put 2 good game together back to back? Or will they return to their pattern of inconsistency? John Metchie is out with injury.
0-5 ATS on Friday games.
Under is 5-0 in their L5 bowl semifinal games.
#3 Georgia (12-1) vs. #2 Michigan (12-1), 7:30 on December 31st
Matchup:
Georgia:
#7 scoring offense at 39.4 ppg
#28 rushing offense at 195.08 ypg
#26 total offense at 443 ypg
#1 scoring defense at 9.5 ppg
#3 rushing defense at 81.69 ypg
#3 passing defense at 171.5 ypg
#2 total defense at 253.3 ypg
Michigan:
#13 scoring offense at 37.7
#9 rushing offense at 223.85 ypg
#19 total offense at 451.9 ypg
#4 scoring defense at 16.6 ppg
#21 rushing defense at 121.54 ypg
#22 passing defense at 194.7 ypg
#12 total defense at 316.2 ypg
Georgia: Will Stetson Bennett still be the guy or will JT Daniels be prepped to start? Everyone seems to be out of covid quarantine.
Under is 6-1 in L7 bowl games as a favorite.
After a SU loss, 1-4 ATS.
6-5 in team totals (2 couldn’t find). Opponents’ TTs are 3-9.
Michigan: They shredded a good Iowa defense, will that be good enough prep for Georgia’s defense?
5-0 ATS in L5 games, over is 3-0 in L3.
0-4 ATS in L4 bowl games.
After getting 450+ total yards in a game, 6-0 ATS.
After covering by 21+ points, 0-4 ATS.
Against top 10 opponents, over is 7-1.
9-3 in team totals (missing 1), opponents’ TTs are 2-10.
#5 Notre Dame (11-1) vs. #9 Oklahoma State (11-2), 1:00 on January 1st
Matchup:
Notre Dame:
#21 scoring offense at 35.3 ppg
#9 scoring defense at 18.3 ppg
#30 total defense at 339.3 ypg
Ok State:
#7 scoring defense at 16.8 ppg
#5 rushing defense at 91.15 ypg
#12 passing defense at 187.2 ypg
#3 total defense at 278.4 ypg
Notre Dame: This will be Marcus Freeman’s first game as a head coach. RB Kyren Williams and S Kyle Hamilton have opted out.
7-0 ATS in L7 games.
In bowl games, under is 4-0.
Against top 10 opponents, under is 5-1.
In their L4 games, haven’t allowed more than 14 points.
Ok State:
4-1-1 ATS against ranked teams.
When an underdog, the under is 9-0, and are 4-1 ATS.
At a neutral site, under is 7-1.
Under is 5-0 in L5 bowl games as an underdog.
5-0 ATS in L5 bowl games.
7-6 in team totals, and opponents’ TT is 4-8-1.
#6 Ohio State (10-2) vs. #11 Utah (10-3), 5:00 on January 1st
Matchup:
Ohio State: Garret Wilson, Chris Olave, and Haskell Garrett have opted out.
#1 scoring offense at 45.5 ppg
#5 passing offense at 364.9 ypg
#1 total offense at 551.1 ypg
#25 scoring defense at 20.9 ppg
#20 rushing defense at 118.5 ypg
#97 passing defense at 246.6 ypg
Utah:
#19 scoring offense at 35.5 ppg
#14 rushing offense at 216.54 ypg
#23 scoring defense at 20.6 ppg
#23 rushing defense at 122.69 ypg
#24 passing defense 195.3 ypg
#13 total defense at 318 ypg
Ohio State:
When favored by less than 7, under is 4-0.
At neutral sites, 1-5 ATS.
After having 450+ total yards, over is 6-0-1.
Under is 4-1 after a SU loss.
Against ranked teams, 1-4 ATS and L3 went under.
Utah:
L3 games went under.
Against ranked teams, 4-0 ATS.
Against non-conference teams, 0-6 ATS.
After a spread win, over is 8-1.
Against a team with a winning record, 5-1 ATS.
10-3 in team totals, opponents’ TT are 5-8.
#8 Ole Miss (10-2) vs. #7 Baylor (11-2), 8:45 on January 1st
Matchup:
Ole Miss:
#18 scoring offense at 35.9 ppg
#8 rushing offense at 224.25 ypg
#21 passing offense at 282.4 ypg
#4 total offense at 506.7 ypg
#102 rushing defense at 183 ypg
#102 total defense at 428.8 ypg
Baylor:
#16 rushing offense at 215.15 ypg
#14 scoring defense at 19.2 ppg
#17 rushing defense at 116.46 ypg
Ole Miss: Matt Corral made it clear he’s not opting out. Jeff Lebby (OC) will be coaching in this game, and is splitting time with Oklahoma until then.
L7 games went under.
After a spread win, the under is 5-0.
As an underdog, under is 7-0.
Under is 4-0 in their L4 bowl games.
Against top 10 teams, over is 5-1.
5-7 for team totals, opponents’ TT are 3-9.
Baylor:
L4 games went under.
At a neutral site, 4-1 ATS and under is 6-1.
Against teams with a winning record, under is 5-0.
Under is 8-0 after having less than 275 total yards in the previous game.
Here is a thread on some of the other games:
My Picks:
ND/Ok State u45.5
Michigan +7.5
Baylor/Ole Mis u55
Utah TT o29.5
Georgia TT u26.5
Cincinnati +14
Iowa/Kentucky u45
If you bet, please do so responsibly!