Bill Belichick Utterly Dominates Rookie Quarterbacks: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 7
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Friday). I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record (3-3 last week, 16-19 YTD)
Kansas City Chiefs (3-3, 2-4 ATS) @ Tennessee Titans (4-2, 4-2 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
KC -5
T 57.5
You can expect a lot of points in this game. The total is high, but I still wouldn't shy away from it. The over is 12-4-1 in Ryan Tannehill’s 17 home starts as a Titan, averaging 58 PPG total. The over is also 8-1 in the Titans last 9 games as an underdog. And I like the Titans team total a lot too. Right now it's 26.5 (went up from 25.5 earlier in the week). The Titans average 30 PPG at home with Tannehill. And the Chiefs allow 29 PPG this season, having allowed more than 26 points in every game this season except last week. If you're looking for a side, one interesting stat is that the Titans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. HOWEVER, there's not a ton of sample size on that in the Vrabel/Tannehill era, so I wouldn't look too much into it.
The Stats Say: Over and Titans team total over
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2, 3-3 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-1, 3-3 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BAL -6.5
T 46
The Ravens have dominated divisional opponents recently. They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. the AFC North. And it's also been hard for the Bengals to string together consecutive covers. They are 1-5 ATS after covering their previous game (which they did last week against Detroit).
The Stats Say: Ravens
New York Jets (1-4, 1-4 ATS) @ New England Patriots (2-4, 2-4 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
NE -7
T 42.5
Bill Belichick just dominates rookie quarterbacks. With the Patriots, he is 22-6 SU against them and a perfect 13-0 at home. He's covered 9 of those 13 games too. And rookie QBs average just a miniscule 12.7 PPG when playing in Foxborough. The Jets team total is 17.5 this week. I love that under. The Pats dominated Zach Wilson once already this season, and we can expect that to happen again. I think the Pats are a great bet in teasers.
The Stats Say: Jets team total under
Philadelphia Eagles (2-4, 3-3 ATS) @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
4:05 PM on FOX
LV -2.5
T 48.5
A lot of points usually get scored in Vegas. Overs are are 12-6-1 at Allegiant Stadium with an average of 51 PPG. Overs are also 6-1 in last 7 there.
The Stats Say: Over
Indianapolis Colts (2-4, 4-2 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-3, 1-4 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
SF -4.5
T 43
It's actually incredible how bad the 49ers are as home favorites. They are just 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 games when favored at home. Meanwhile, the Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. And they're also 5-2 ATS in primetime games under Frank Reich.
The Stats Say: Colts
Tommy Teaser Of The Week (2-4 YTD): Pats -0.5 and Ravens -0.5. So basically just both to win. I told you I love the Pats in teasers. I think they're way better than 2-4 and should handle the Jets at home. And the Ravens are my preseason Super Bowl pick who I'm still riding with. I think they are a lot better than the Bengals who come back down to Earth this week. It's currently -113 on the Barstool Sportsbook. You can bet it here
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.