Katie Stats: How to bet the Florida Alabama Game and the Week 3 Slate
John Raoux. Shutterstock Images.This week's slate is better than last week's but not by much. But with meh slates come good games, and even better upsets. Anthony Richardson, Florida's QB, has the best nickname this year so far, AR15. You don't fuck with that. If UNC losses to UVA this week, I will be punching Jake Malasek (a very annoying UVA fan who also works here.) But anyways, here is everything you guys come here to read; breakdown of the big games, an added injury report section, and my card. May all of your bets hit and your team win. Unless you're a UVA fan.
Nebraska @ #3 Oklahoma, 12pm (OU -22.5, 62.5)
Matchup: Oklahoma won the last meeting in 2010. There’s been a lot of petty off season drama for this game.
Public and money like Nebraska.
Nebraska: Coming off of a 28-3 win over Buffalo at home. They didn’t do anything spectacular over Buffalo, they were just the better team. Are 2-1 SU on the season.
In their L5 games, the under is 4-1. Are 5-2 ATS in their L7. Since 2019, all games are 14-7-3 for the under.
Are 1-3 ATS against ranked teams.
As an underdog, the under is 7-2. As an away underdog, the under is 5-0. As an away team, the under is 5-0-1.
Oklahoma: Coming off of a 76-0 win over Western Carolina. They had 624 total yards, and limited WCU to 55 rushing yards. WCU just isn’t a good team, so it is hard to have any legit takeaways from it. Oklahoma struggled with Tulane earlier in the season, winning only 40-35.
Their L3 games have gone over.
Are 8-2 ATS in their L10. Since 2020, in all games they're 9-4 ATS. Are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record.
#8 Cincinnati @ Indiana, 12pm (Cincy -4, 50)
Matchup: Indiana has won the L5, but the last meeting was in 2000.
Public and the money love Cincy and the under.
Cincinnati: Coming off of a 42-7 win over Murray State. The game was tied at halftime, but Cincinnati scored 35 unanswered points. They have one go to rusher in Jerome Ford, who had 18 carries, whereas the top receiver only had 4.
As an away favorite, the over is 5-1.
In all games since 2019, the under is 17-9, but since 2020, it is 5-5.
Indiana: Coming off of a 56-14 win over Idaho. The more important game for them was their earlier loss vs. #18 Iowa 34-6. Indiana was held to 2 FGs, only 77 rushing yards, and Michael Penix Jr. had 3 INTs.
Last week’s over against Idaho ended a 4 game under streak. Since 2020, they’re 8-2 ATS. Are 4-0 ATS in the L4 home games. 6-3 ATS against ranked teams.
The under is 7-1 in non-conference games.
Purdue @ #12 Notre Dame, 2:30pm (ND -8, 58.5)
Matchup: ND has won the L7 games; the last one was in 2014.
Public is split but money likes Notre Dame. Public likes the under, money leans to the over.
Purdue: Coming off of a 49-0 win over UConn. They kept UConn under 100 passing yards. They'll be without their leading RB Zander Horvath; he left the game in the 1st quarter. The next 2 men up, have 6 and 8 less carries respectively. They still have solid options at RB, but Horvath was the clear RB1. They beat Oregon State 30-21 in week 1. WR David Bell had 121 yards and 3 RDs on 6 receptions.
As an underdog they are 8-1 ATS. As an away underdog, the under is 6-1.
Under is 14-4 in their L18 road games. Since 2020, all games are 6-2 for the under. Against ranked opponents, the under is 3-1.
As an away underdog, they’re 14-3 ATS, and against ranked teams they’re 12-4 ATS.
Notre Dame: Coming off of a 32-29 win over Toledo. Notre Dame took the lead with only 1:09 left. Toledo had 99 yards of penalties. RB Kyren Williams and TE Michael Mayer are the leaders. There are issues with the OL, Coan was sacked 6 times. The defense continues to give up big plays. Their win over FSU was diminished when FSU lost to an FCS school.
Have won their L25 home games, but an average of 21 points. At home the over is 5-2, and as a home favorite the over is 4-2.
As a home favorite, they are 1-5 ATS, and as a favorite they're 4-7. Since 2020, regular season games are 5-8 ATS.
#1 Alabama @ #11 Florida, 3:30pm (Alabama -14, 58.5)
Matchup: Alabama has won the L7. In 2020 Alabama won 52-46, (Alabama -16.5, 74). In 2016 Alabama won 54-16.
The L5 have gone over.
Public and money like Alabama. Public likes the over, money loves the under.
Alabama: Alabama is coming off of a 48-14 win over Mercer, where they allowed 2 second half TDs. LB Will Anderson went down with a knee injury, and is day to day for Florida. This will be QB Bryce Young’s first road game.
Against ranked teams are 5-2 ATS. In conference games they are 8-3 ATS. Since 2015, in all games they’re 49-37-1 (57%), proving Dave’s comment on the CFB show right.
Both games this year have gone under. The over is 6-3 as an away favorite, and over is 12-7 against SEC teams.
Florida: Coming off of a 42-20 win at USF. Florida had 666 total yards, with a slight edge to rushing. There is a QB controversy between QB1 Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson. Richardson is questionable for Saturday. Jones is more experienced, Richardson has a higher ceiling, but a lower floor. Jones has thrown 2 interceptions each game.
Haven’t covered their L3 games, and are on a 1-5 ATS run. Since 2020, all games are 5-8-1 ATS. When an underdog to a ranked team, are 5-2 ATS.
The over is 4-1 in the L5 games. Their L3 games as an underdog have gone over. Their L4 against ranked teams went over, and are 8-3-1 for the over since 2018. When an underdog to a ranked team the over is 5-0-1. Since 2019, as a home team the under is 7-5. Since 2019, all games are 9-5 for the over
# 22 Auburn @ #10 Penn State, 7:30pm (PSU -6.5, 53.5)
Matchup: Auburn won the last meeting in 2003.
Public and money split on spread, money leans to the lover.
Auburn: Coming off of a 62-0 win over Alabama State. Auburn has 364 yards rushing, to 174 yards passing. They held Alabama State to 176 total yards. They’re rushing by committee with Jarquez Hunter, Tank Bigsby, and Sean Jackson. Only 1 receiver, Demetrius Robertson, had 3 receptions, everyone has less. Akron, their week 1 opponent is 126th on the SP+ and 129th on FPI. Alabama State is FCS.
Their L3 games have gone over. Since 2020, all games are 8-5 for the under.
As an away team, their L5 games have gone under. Since even 2016, as an away team the under is 14-7-1, and as an away underdog the under is 6-1-1. As an underdog, are 0-4 ATS, and against ranked teams are 1-4 ATS.
Penn State: Coming off of a 44-13 win over Ball State, and successfully avoided a big post game slump after the Wisconsin win. They held Ball State to only 69 rushing yards, and caused 2 interceptions. Penn State has nearly 500 yards, and split between rushing and passing. A lot of players are getting touches. Ball State won the MAC last year.
Are on a 6-0 ATS run right now. Both games have gone under this year. As a home favorite are 10-1 ATS. Since 2019 are 17-7 ATS in all games.
Since 2017 are 12-1 ATS against non-con teams, and 22-2 ATS as a home favorite.
#19 Arizona State @ #23 BYU, 10:15pm (ASU -3.5, 50.5)
Matchup: BYU won the last meeting in 1998.
Money and the public love Arizona State.
Arizona State: Coming off of a 37-10 win over UNLV. They shut UNLV out in the second half, and only allowed 155 total yards, 19 of which came in the second half. Arizona 290 rushing yards, to 175 passing. QB Jayden Daniels and RB Rachaad White led the team in rushing. White also led the team in receptions with 5. Good at times, but inconsistent.
Both games this season have gone under, and didn’t cover. Are on a 6-2 for the under streak.
Covered their L3 away games. As an underdog they are 5-1-1 ATS, and against ranked teams are 4-1 ATS.
As an away favorite, are 9-0 for the over, in that same time frame, the under is 12-4 against ranked opponents. Their L6 games against non-conference teams went under.
BYU: Coming off of a 26-17 win over #21 Utah, which broke a 9 game losing streak for BYU. RB Tyler Allgeier is their go-to guy with 27 touches, the top receiver had 4 receptions. QB Jaren Hall had 92 rushing yards himself.
Their L5 games have gone under. Have won the L10 home games SU.
Since 2020, all games are 9-5 for the under, and 8-5-1 ATS.
As an underdog, are 9-3 ATS, as a home underdog are 3-2 ATS.
Some Injury Notes:
Illinois’ QB Brandon Peters is back and will start on Friday vs. Maryland
Miami’s RB2, Donald Chaney Jr., is out for the season with injury
South Carolina’s QB Luke Doty seems like he’ll be 100% by Saturday
Boston College’s QB1 Phil Jurkovec is out for the year
Kansas State’s QB1 Skylar Thompson is out indefinitely, but seems not for the season
Purdue’s RB1 Zander Horvath is out 4-8 weeks
Texas A&M’s QB1 Haynes King is out until at least mid-October
Casey Thompson will be starting over Hudson Card for Texas
Florida’s Anthony Richardson (QB2 for now) should be healthy for this weekend.
My Card:
Penn State/Auburn u53.5🔒
Coastal -13.5
Cincy -4
Cincy/Ind u50
Oklahoma -22.5
Michigan state +6.5
Purdue +7.5
Alabama -14.5
Alabama TT o36.5
Penn State -5.5
Wake Forest -4.5
VT/WVU o50.5
I am still working my card, so check my twitter (@kpondiscio) to see if I added anything. If you bet on any of these games, please do so responsibly and on the Barstool Sportsbook.