Rumormongering About Potential Patriots QBs, Vol. VII: Gardner Minshew

Gary McCullough. Shutterstock Images.

This is the seventh in a series. And maybe the last, as it's time to get going on the draft.  Volume I: Aaron Rodgers is here. This is Volume II, me being right about Matthew Stafford not coming to New England. Here's Volume III on Jimmy Garoppolo. This is Volume VI: Derek Carr. Here's Volume V, putting the Carson Wentz rumors to bed. And here was Volume VI: Russell Wilson. 

It's not every year that 24 year old quarterbacks with 20 career starts become available unless the team for whom they made those starts truly believes said quarterback has no future. But then, it's rare that said team goes 1-15 and lands the top pick in a draft where a generational talent like Trevor Lawrence is turning pro. 

This is the situation Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars find themselves. If the Jets had simply done what they were supposed to and gone 0-16, we're not having this conversation. Jacksonville would probably be perfectly content to build around Minshew with a WR like Ja'Marr Chase out of LSU or OT Penei Sewell out of Oregon or flip their pick to someone willing to overpay to get one of the other QBs expected to go in the Top 10. But now, their hands are tied. They can't afford to go down in infamy like the 2007 Trailblazers, taking Greg Oden over Kevin Durant. 

Which begs the question whether they'll keep Minshew as a young, dependable insurance policy with low premiums ($850,000) to be Lawrence's backup, or be willing to move him. There's a lot to be said for both arguments. They no doubt trust Minshew. But then there should be a lot of veteran QB2s available once the free agency dominoes start to fall. Your Ryan Fitzpatricks and your Alex Smiths. Especially this year, with so many teams needing to dump payroll. It should be a buyer's market. And Jacksonville leads the league with an insane $84.6 million of cap space. So finding an adequate backup shouldn't be an issue, just so long as they can get value in return for Minshew. 

And if Jacksonville is taking calls on him, there will be a market. Jim Nagy, who used to be a Patriots scout and now is the executive director of the Senior Bowl was asked about Minshew on WEEI a few days ago and had this to say:

"I am a big believer in Gardner," he said. "Whether it is the Patriots or somebody else, I think it is a really smart move to float a third [round pick]. If you could get him for a third or fourth-round pick, that’s an easy trade. Think about some of the players who have been picked in the third or fourth round. You go back to his rookie year, he is the highest rated rookie quarterback in the league, above Kyler Murray, on a team that doesn’t have a lot of weapons. And then [last year] was almost a sabotaged year for Gardner in my mind. The whole Tank for Trevor thing, I mean you can say what you want, he wasn’t set up for success [last] year. They pulled him and jerked him around a little bit, put Mike Glennon in there. I didn’t agree with anything that was going on. I believe in Gardner because he’s a baller.

“… He knows how to play the position and he is mobile. He can make plays with his legs. He can run around and create. He’s got great leadership. There’s a ton to like there."

It's hard to argue his point. On an objectively atrocious Jaguars team, in Minshew's nine games he still managed to put up these numbers:

• Yards per game: 251.0 (16th in the league)
• Touchdowns: 16
• Interceptions: 5
• TD %: 4.9% (17th)
• INT %: 1.5% (5th lowest)
• Passer rating: 95.9 (16th)

And like the man said, he had a better rookie season than the rest of his draft class, with 21 TDs to just six INTs, with a higher passer rating and Pro Football Focus grade than Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock or Daniel Jones. So if life were fair, he'd be getting his shot to start somewhere for somebody. 

So why not New England? Nagy knows what the Pats look for in a QB. You can argue that at 6-1, 225 lb he's a little small to be their type. But Jimmy Garoppolo is 6-2, 225 lb. And speaking as a man who's spent part of every day of his life since puberty trying to prove that an inch here or there doesn't mean a thing, I can't quibble over that difference. For whatever reason, Minshew inexplicably fell to the 6th round but has proven he's deserving of a chance to compete for a starter's job. Only to find himself in one of the places that will never happen, due to circumstances beyond his control. 

As far as the cost of doing business, assuming it would take a third or a fourth rounder to get him as Nagy suggested, few teams are as well equipped to pay it. In addition to one third (No. 96 overall) they've got three fourth rounders, (Nos. 116, 135 and 141). Plus whatever other picks they get when they inevitably drop out of the first to draft a tweener defensive back from Rutgers move up and down the board. 

The more I think about Minshew to New England, the better I feel about it. In his 20 starts, he's had nine with a passer rating above 100.0. He's thrown multiple touchdowns 13 times. He's had 14 games where he threw 20 or more passes without an interception. And thrown for 295+ yards in six of his starts. Again, on a bad team. Bring him to New England, let Josh McDaniels have a full offseason to cater his scheme to a young, mobile, accurate passer who takes good care of the ball, pay him starter's money while filling in the skill positions around him, and I will take my chances. I'd still rather have Jimmy G or Mac Jones if he falls to the 15th pick. But I can envision a happy future with Gardner Minshew bringing his mustache and his flow to Foxboro. 

The chances Gardner Minshew comes to New England: 30%