Don't Let The Memes Fool You, The Super Bowl Shows Us Once Again How Predictive Recruiting Rankings Really Are
(NOTE: I wrote this blog yesterday before the game)
Last night, I stumbled upon this tweet from new Illinois coach Bret Bielema. Did it trigger me? Not as much as I made a mental note that I am now incredibly bearish on his chances of making Illinois a better football program than he found it. The "stars don't matter" fallacy is one of the most untruthful things going on in the sport of football right now and pretending as the Super Bowl proves otherwise is blatantly wrong.
Before I begin on how false the stat that Bret Bielema tweeted out is, I just want to mention a few FACTS when it comes to recruiting in college football:
Average player on every national championship team in 21st century: 4-star.
No team has won a national championship in the modern era with less than 50% 4/5-stars scholarship players.
Of the first 64 picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, 69% of them were 4/5-stars.
4/5-star athletes are 1000% more likely to be drafted.
I could go on and on, but I don't want to bore you too much. Of course, the recruiting rankings of the players on the field today are pretty much irrelevant. However, I do find it incredibly interesting how many of these phenomenal players were highly regarded players coming out of high school.
On Thursday, I ran the numbers for the presumed starters today:
(Note: 4 & 5-stars make up 11% of their class, not the 8% number I said in this tweet)
It was example 808090 to me that the rating assigned to you in high school is incredibly predictive of future success, both in college AND the NFL. This is an easy concept to grasp. The most talented individuals usually end up on top, no matter how many high school coaches scream "hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard" at their teams.
I was ready to put this all to rest, but then Bret Beliema's tweet popped up on my timeline last night. At this point of the blog, I realize I am attacking ole Beliema a bit. He isn't unique in this take. It seems like every few weeks there's a new tweet or meme that comes out with an NFL stars Rivals recruiting page and a 2-star next to their high school football photo. I guess I thought a former SEC coach would know better than to post something like that, especially considering how wrong it is.
I went through both the Chiefs and Bucs roster and this is what I found:
-Leonard Fournette isn't the only 5-star in today's game.
-The Chiefs have FIVE 5-stars on their team, meanwhile the Bucs have two. That makes 7, so 6 more than what was said in the little stat Bret Beliema shared.
-Between the two rosters there are 33 players that were 4-stars and above in high school. Removing specialists, that makes up over 33% of the two teams rosters, 3x higher than the amount of 4/5-star athletes in each recruiting class (11%).
All of this is incredibly easy to understand when you look at the basic math of it. Yes, JJ Watt and Russell Wilson weren't 5-stars coming out of high school. If you aren't a 4-star or above, it doesn't mean your football career is over. What evaluators thought of the 90 players playing today in high school won't matter for who ends up lifting the Lombardi Trophy. All that being said, there is no surprise that this game will feature an abundance of the most talented players from their respective high school class.