Tommy Stats Week 10: Are Road Underdogs Off A Loss The Best Bet In Football?
Welcome back to the lab. Every Sunday morning during this NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats and trends that I presented on Barstool Sports Advisors, plus some additional ones that I didn't get to use. These stats are a mixture of ones I've found across various websites, and also some just through my own research from pouring through the data.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5, 3-5 ATS) @ New York Giants (2-7, 6-3 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
PHI -3
T 44
While I may be a Giants fan, as a good statistician, I must put all bias aside. And I can not in good conscience tell you to take them.
-Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings at the Meadowlands
-Giants are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 as home dogs
-The Giants have beat the Eagles just once in their last 13 matchups
-The Giants are 1-15 SU in their last 16 as underdogs
-Daniel Jones is 1-16 in his career when not facing Washington
BUT, if I was going to try to find any sliver of hope for this game, it would be that…
-Daniel Jones is 7-3 ATS against teams with a losing record
-Giants are 12-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Los Angeles Chargers (2-6, 5-3 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (5-3, 6-2 ATS)
4:05 PM on CBS
MIA -2.5
T 48
The Chargers are a road dog coming off a loss. That has been a very profitable spot across the league.
-Since the start of last season, road dogs off a loss are 71-43-5 ATS, that’s covering at a 62% clip
The Chargers also fare very well as road dogs themselves.
-Chargers are 11-4-3 ATS as a road dog under Anthony Lynn
-Since 2012, the Chargers are 33-15-4 as a road dog, best in football
Buffalo Bills (7-2, 4-5 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-3, 5-3 ATS)
4:05 PM on CBS
ARI -2
T 56
-Josh Allen is 5-1-1 ATS on the road against winning teams
-Cardinals are 1-5 both SU and ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite
Seattle Seahawks (6-2, 5-3 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
LAR -2
T 55.5
Russell Wilson has been best in his career as an underdog and coming off a loss. We get him in both those spots this week.
-Russell Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS in his career off a loss
-Russell Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS as an underdog
-Seahawks are 9-2 in last 11 as road underdog
Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 4-4 ATS) @ New England Patriots (3-5, 3-5 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
BAL -7.5
T 42.5
All Pats stats obviously need to be taken with a grain of salt since Brady is gone, but for whatever it's worth…
-Overall, in 13 games as home dogs since 2000, Patriots are 11-2 ATS and won 9 times
-Just 3rd time since then they’ve been a home dog of a touchdown or more. Both in 2000. Covered both times and upset the Colts who were 13 point favorites.
Also you may want to look at the under.
-Pats have gone under last 4 games off of MNF (39.5 total points average, and those are with Brady)
-The under is 6-1 in the Ravens last 7 against the AFC
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.
It'll also air again at 11, followed by the Pro Football Football show.