Tommy Stats NFL Week 4: Foles As A Season Savior, 49ers As Home Favorites, And More
Welcome back to the lab. Every Sunday morning during this NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats and trends that I presented on Barstool Sports Advisors, plus some additional ones that I didn't get to use. These stats are a mixture of ones I've found across various websites, and also some just through my own research from pouring through the data.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this.
Indianapolis Colts (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
IND -2.5
T 45
A lot of stats here favor Nick Foles and the Bears. He is basically a savior when he takes over in the middle of season.
-Since 2013, when Nick Foles takes over as a team’s starter in the middle of a season, he is 17-6 ATS. This does not include 2019 when he began the season as a starter and then returned to the starting role after an injury.
-Bears are 11-3-1 ATS as home dogs since 2016
Cleveland Browns (2-1, 1-2 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2, 0-3 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
DAL -4.5
T 55
These trends are all over the place for the most part, but most seem to favor the Cowboys because it's extremely rare for the Browns to be good for 3 straight games, especially when hitting the road.
-The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games, losing by an average of 16 PPG
-The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
-Last time Cowboys didn’t cover 4 straight games was 2016
New England Patriots (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
KC -7
T 53.5
-Patriots have covered 6 straight as dogs of 7 or more and are 9-2 ATS under Belichick in this position.
And in the department of "Something has to give"
-Chiefs are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
-New England is 17-6 ATS past 23 games as the underdog.
Buffalo Bills (3-0, 2-1 ATS) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
BUF -3
T 52.5
Good on both sides here. Pick what stats mean more to you.
-The Bills are 12-7-1 as a favorite under Sean McDermott, 63% - best in football
-Under Sean McDermott, Bills unders are 19-8 on the road, second highest mark in football
-In Josh Allen’s road starts, the Bills are 9-3-2 ATS
-The Bills are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 out west
-The Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss
-The Raiders are 7-2 ATS as home dogs
Philadelphia Eagles (0-2-1, 0-3 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on CBS
SF -7
T 45
The Eagles stink on ice but the 49ers have been surprisingly terrible as big home favorites.
-49ers 0-12-1 ATS since 2013 as home favorites of 6 or more
-Road underdogs are 9-3-1 ATS against Shanahan’s 49ers
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.
It'll also air again at 11, followed by the Pro Football Football show