What Do The White Sox Do With Jose Abreu This Offseason?

A big point of contention regarding the 2019 and beyond roster construction of the Chicago White Sox is what to do with Jose Abreu once the season ends and when he becomes a free agent.

Now I will make this loud and clear: I love Jose Abreu, always will and he was the one good constant in the White Sox lineup over his entire 6 year tenure with the team.

But I will also make THIS loud and clear: I do not believe the White Sox should resign him to a new deal based on loyalty alone.  If there is a clear upgrade that fits their roster construction, timeline, budget, etc. and they pass on it because of loyalty to a pretty good player, that is a BIG issue to me.

But is there a clear upgrade?  Let’s take a look at possible free agents – here’s the list of 1B that as of now will become free agents after the World Series, per MLB Trade Rumors:

Can check off everyone on this list, especially Rizzo for obvious reason.  There’s not one clear upgrade over Abreu available via free agency… unless you take a look at DH

Now I truly believe that 1B is the most UNDERRATED position defensively.  You’re in just about every play in the infield and can save or lose a ton of runs on your picking ability when extrapolated over the course of an entire year.  Now Cruz ain’t going anywhere and he’s a butcher defensively, but I fully anticipate JD Martinez to opt out.  In this hypothetical, he’d represent the one clear upgrade over Abreu.  I think Martinez could get 4 years, $80MM guaranteed no problem on a new contract and I’d be all over that if I were the White Sox.  He could split time defensively with Abreu and though his handedness isn’t ideal, when you’re as good a hitter as he is it doesn’t matter.

They could also look to go the trade route: The White Sox could start to look at trading from prospect capital as early as this winter to upgrade at the big league level.  They currently have the #1 1B prospect, per MLB Pipeline, in the aforementioned Andrew Vaughn and he will rocket through the system, but they could look for a quick placeholder by someone who’s closer/blocked from another team.  Who that player is, I’m not sure.  But as I scan through other teams’ rosters and prospect rankings, my thought is the best possible placeholder is…

…Jose Abreu.

Fans have a tendency these days to get enamored with WAR as an end all, be all measuring stick of a player’s success.  I personally use it as a tool and reference point.  There’s no such thing as a shitty 5WAR player.  But There can be players that outperform their WAR.  For instance Abreu sits at .8 fWAR right now.  Not good, but a lot of that value is tied to his dog shit defensive play at 1B and not his bat.  That said, his non-advanced stats are just fine:

He’s still going to pound 35 home runs and drive in 115-120 this year.  I don’t care what metrics are out there, that’s good production and there might be some underlying numbers on why his fWAR is so low.  Shit like his hard contact and exit velo numbers…

…which are still elite.  Top of the class.  A1.  Excellent.  That, and he’s had the worst luck in baseball when pissing on baseballs this season:

So maybe the baseball god’s will bless him with a rebound year in 2020?  It’s entirely possible.  He just needs to do a few things:

1. Walk more
2. Play defense less

if he does those things, then he’s a perfect middle of the order bat for what the White Sox need in the next year or two, especially when complemented with prospect and free agent additions. If not?  Well judging by 33 year old 1B signings of the last few years, he won’t get more than 2 + a club option anyways.  Nothing that will cripple a payroll.  But Abreu says he’s signing here regardless:

So the White Sox could be compelled to only give him 1+1.  And that’d be a perfect Segway into the Andrew Vaughn era, and an inexpensive one to boot.  I’d guess he’ll get something like 1+1 for $28-30MM guaranteed.  Cool, sign me up.  Just get on base more goddamnit.

We all know that Andrew Vaughn is the future at 1B for the White Sox.  He could be up as early as this time next year, but more realistically sometime in early 2021.  With that said, that doesn’t mean Abreu doesn’t have a fit in future White Sox plans.  It’s just as a DH.  Which could theoretically be fine.  But if they do choose to part ways, there will be a LOT of teams lining up for his services as a 1B/DH, in spite of his lackluster advanced stats.

***A VERY IMPORTANT PS***

People talk about what a great influence Abreu is in the clubhouse.  I’m sure he is and know he’s beloved by his teammates.  But people also act like he’s a huge reason for the success of Moncada and will be a huge reason for the success of Robert because they’re Cuban.  I don’t discount this at all, but this goes back to not resigning him on sheer loyalty alone.  If those players can’t succeed because they don’t have Jose Abreu in the locker room, they were doomed from the start anyways.  They’re adults, and rich ones at that.  There are 23 other guys + coaches and managers in the locker room they can lean on when needed.  I think this is VASTLY overrated.  If Abreu really shit the bed the last year or two, I’m talking 15 home runs, .220/.285 slash lines, there’s no way he’d be back, in spite of how good he is in the locker room.  But he’s still producing good power outputs, so he more than likely will be.  That’s all it boils down to, whether or not he’ll be good at baseball in the next few years.  Not whether or not he’ll be a good babysitter.