Is the Fact Gronk is This Skinny Mean He's NOT Going to Unretire?

I believe the last time I checked my Gronk UnRetirement Probability Meter, which I calibrated at 50/50 when the off-season started, was just about a month ago. This was months after Willie McGinest had predicted he’d come back, weeks after Rodney Harrison said he’d be back, and immediately after several Patriots sources told Mike Freeman he’s definitely coming back, “You can count on it.” By that time, I’d moved the needle to 67/33. Basically 2/3. Twice as likely that he’d unretire than he’d stay retired.

That was before he made his most recent public appearances, beginning with hitting the red carpet at the premiere of “100% Julian Edelman.” As a guy who’s been fighting to lose the same 2-5 pounds since Christmas, I don’t know how you go from this:

… to this:

… between February and the end of June. He’s gone from his previous Easter Island head to the melon of a high school kid. It’s like watching Captain America go back to young Steve Rogers, too skinny and getting rejected by every recruitment office in the military.

I’m not the best as guessing people’s sizes. I’m not the guy you want being the only eyewitness to your mugging or being in charge of your carnival booth where you guess people’s height and weight because I’ll give away all your unlicensed knockoff plush toys. But I’d say conservatively speaking he’s gone from his playing weight of 265 to … what? About 240? 235 even?

I’m putting aside all the obligatory snark about “Gee, I wonder what could make a retired football player drop so much weight” because nobody who isn’t a card-carrying member of the BBWAA has cared about PEDs in 20 years. Football is a brutal, nasty business and if they have to take more medicines than every horse at Churchill Downs, more power to them. Gronk is by no means the first recent retiree to slim down and he won’t be the last. Joe Thomas lost a ton of weight. Alan Faneca did. Tedy Bruschi has way less mass on TV than he did in his playing days, and they say the camera adds 10 lbs. It’s only natural that you’d lay off the gym and the extra calories and get your weight down, both for your health and the total lack of need for it.

The question then is, what does this do to Gronk’s chances of coming back? This year or later? Can he possibly add the bulk back on in time to come back in, say, December like we’d hoped? You hear all the time actors talking about how to put on muscle to play superheroes or whatever that they get a trainer, live at the gym and power down nothing but protein and shakes. But I never by it. I love Chris Pratt as much as the next guy. But you can’t convince me he didn’t juice like balls to go from pudgy Andy Dwyer to ripped Star Lord. Hollywood doesn’t test for PEDs, so why wouldn’t you?

Which brings us back to Gronk. I have no idea if he can come back from this. At least in time for this year, to help a team with a solid roster but with a huge, smoldering crater at the tight end spot. I’d suggest that maybe he could transition into the “move” tight end phase of his career, split out more, play detached from the formation like a Travis Kelce or Jimmy Graham. But I just rewatched the “3 Games to Glory” section on the AFC title game at Kansas City last night (my life is lit, yo), and Gronk throwing wham blocks like a tackle and coming across the formation to open holes in the interior like a guard was a huge part of not just their run game but their overall attack. I’ll take a skinny Gronk running routes and putting less wear and tear on his body. But there’s no way a Gronk who only dabbles in blocking is the Gronk we’re used to. But limited Gronk is better than no Gronk by a million miles.

So as far as the Gronk UnRetirement Probability Meter, I’m resetting it. Dialing my optimism way, way back. I’m not saying it’s impossible. But I’m putting the likelihood he’s back in 2019 as, to butcher a phrase, less probable than not. Call it 40/60. Until we see him back in the gym or hear another rumor. This year, in the first summer of the post-Gronk era, everything is subject to change.