Barstool’s Champions League Preview – The “Liverpool or Deaderpool?” Edition

Sam's Army2/19/2019 5:26 PM

Sam’s Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies

Hi Haters™,

There is no such thing as a “bad day of games” when it comes to Champions League knockouts. Having said that, some are better than others, and today is definitely the pick of the litter as far as first legs go.

So sit back, relax, grab some popcorn and let the sweet sounds of the world’s second greatest anthem get you in the mood for some sexy soccer…

[One housekeeping note: I’m going to be in Nashville tomorrow for a fun little soccer thingy that will be taking place down there… so stay tuned for updates and/or follow along on social media]

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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

RE-MICROWAVED REMINDER (in case you missed it last week) of a couple things to keep in mind heading into these games:

1) VAR IS HERE BABY! Happy happy joy joy, all our problems are solved…. right? Needless to say I am interested to see how this plays out. I think it could be really useful for objective calls like offside – if they work out some kinks like communicating with fans wtf is going on. However, my big fear is that they are going to waste time reviewing too many “judgment calls” that end up strangling the beautiful game without actually adding much in the way of upside. Tee bee deeeeeeeeeeeeeeee…

[[Update: so far so good – or at least okay – with VAR. There was a controversial offside call that overturned an Ajax goal that would have changed that game… after watching the replay a hundred times I’ve concluded that it sucks because Courtois fucked up and wasn’t going to save the follow up shot BUT it was the right call because Tadic intentionally obstructed him while in an offside position. Real Madrid got very lucky (GASP) but it is what it is.]]

2) First legs of home-and-homes can often turn into “cagey affairs” so set your expectations – and O/U bets – accordingly.

3) Injuries are going to be a HUGE factor. They already have been in games like United/PSG and Spurs/BVB… probably gonna be again today given all the guys dropping for Liverpool.

4) TNT/BR are only televising one of the two games, choosing to show “Friends” reruns on TBS and trying to get people to buy their streaming service. Good luck with that. Fwiw, the non-TNT game can still be found on TV (en español) on Galavision.

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TUESDAY’S PICKS

Liverpool [+110]
Bayern [+260]
Draw [+255]

Biggest game of Liverpool’s season so far – without question. The year has been going spectacularly well. Even hopeless biased Reds fans would have to admit that being even on points with City with one league loss and a game in hand at this point is pretty spectacular. HOWEVA, a loss today would totally change things for a couple reasons.

One is that Liverpool is already out of the two domestic cup competitions, and a loss today would mean one and a half feet out of Champions League, leaving all their eggs in one basket: winning the league title. Not a bad basket but the margin between great season and incredibly disappointing season is razor thin.

The second reason a loss today would be a big, big, big, YOUGE problem is that Liverpool have been absolutely shit on the road in Champions League, having lost four games in a row away from Anfield including one to Red Star Belgrade.

That right there is what we call a pattern, boys and girls, so suffice to say the numbers suggest that a win today at home is CRUCIAL for Klopp & Co.

As for the matchup itself, Liverpool and Bayern are both flawed teams – albeit in different ways.

WHY BAYERN COULD WIN: Liverpool’s flaws are more cosmetic in the sense that their defense – which has been damn good all season – has been hit hard by the injury and suspension bug. Dejan Lovren and Joe Gomez are doubtful with knocks and Virgil van Djik is suspended for accumulating three yellow cards in the group stage. That leaves Joel Matip and…. Fabinho(?) as a possible CB pairing, and I can only imagine how big Robert Lewandowski’s boner is thinking about that.

WHY LIVERPOOL COULD WIN: Bayern are more fundamentally flawed (in a relative sense compared to the recent powerhouses they have put out there) with a midfield that is not presently the dominant force it once was. Ze Germans have been better lately and are gaining ground on Dortmund in the Bundesliga title race but defensive performances like the 3-2 win over wee Augsburg on Friday (or a recent 1-3 loss to Leverkusen) don’t exactly engender a ton of confidence when facing a side with as many weapons as Liverpool bring to the table.

Also, not for nothing, Liverpool come in off the back of a 10-day layoff thanks to having dipped out of the cup competitions ridiculously early.

Long story short this game has the potential for a real shootout, especially if Bayern find a way to get an early goal, which is not at all unthinkable given the Plan D defensive arrangement that Klopp may have to throw out there. I had been leaning 3-2 Liverpool ever since I initially saw the draw back in December butttttttttttttttt I just gave myself cold feet thinking about how both teams are likely to come out a little cautious in a first leg against a legitimate adversary. Yep, last minute audible. I am going with Liverpool to win 2-1 – leaving it allllllllllll still to play for in a couple weeks at the Allianz.

Tfw you fart and something drips down your leg… or win but concede at home

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Lyon [+375]
Barcelona [-160]
Draw [+290]

A couple of months ago this matchup looked awesome and I thought Lyon had a puncher’s chance – perhaps even better – of sneaking up on Barcelona… but that was then and this is now. The (Other) Frenchies are are a good, fun, underrated team that loves to play and has proven they are not fazed by bright lights and big-name competition, so the home and home should be a lot of fun. HOWEVA, they have not looked anywhere near as good lately as they did last fall when they walked into the Etihad and knocked off City. What’s more, and perhaps crucially, they are going to be without their captain and midfield talisman Nabil Fekir who is suspended for today’s game.

Barcelona have not been their usual selves lately either but they are about as healthy as they have been all season and still have an almost interchangeable murderer’s row of attacking talent with Suarez, Dembele, Coutinho, Rakitic and some little dude name Messi. I have said all season that I think Barcelona’s defense will ultimately be their downfall in Champions League… just not sure that Lyon – right here right now – will be the one to exploit the Catalans.

Draw could be a nice payday and not unthinkable in France but I am going with the big, bad, Barça to win 2-1.

The last thing you see when you doubt Barcelona and your bet dies

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WEDNESDAY’S PICKS

I would typically post a separate blog tomorrow for Wednesday’s game but am going to forgo the tens of dozens of extra clicks (sorry KMarko) and include both previews in one blog because I may end up being a little busy running around Nashville tomorrow…. so free previews with on extra clicks for you! Hooray!

Atletico [+180]
Juventus [+180]
Draw {+200]

This like a matchup of two wise old wizards who have been around the block and seen some shit, and are fluent in the dark arts of doing what it takes to win important games but won’t necessarily resort to them in this first leg.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m going to watch the hell out of this game…. but I fully expect going in that it could well be a – shall we say – tepid affair with both teams prodding and prying but ultimately comfortable setting for a 0-0 draw.

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Schalke [+900]
City [-375]
Draw [+500]

Weston McKennie is awesome.

This Schalke squad is not so awesome.

Ze (Other) Germans best and perhaps only hope is if City comes in overconfident and sloppy/. Is it a possibility? Meh, maybe. Pep’s People are still alive in FOUR competitions and will play for their first trophy trinket this coming weekend. I have a hard time imagining that being much of a distraction, but this is a team that has been playing twice a week for pretty much the entire season. That might come back to bite them at some point. It’d take some serious cojones to go against City given the form they are in at the moment though. As if there was any question, my cojones are medium sized – at best.

City to win 3-1.

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Lots more action to come on Thursday… hahahahahahaha, just kidding, it’s just Europe League – but it is still a mighty big day for Arsenal, whose next 18 months literally hang in the balance and depend on their ability to overturn a 0-1 deficit at home against some Belaruskis.

Regular old beautiful amazing exciting gorgeous EPL is finally back in action this weekend and, yep, we’re definitely going to be doing a few boners