It Doesn't Sound Likely That The Red Sox Will Re-Sign Craig Kimbrel

The Red Sox, for the most part, are bringing back their entire core for the 2019 season, but they have a few notable free agents in Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Kelly, Steve Pearce, and their closer, Craig Kimbrel. Drew Pomeranz is a free agent, too. Dave Dombrowski has commented that just about all of the Red Sox free agents have expressed an interest in returning to Boston next year and beyond, but Kimbrel is in line to fetch the most lucrative contract and it doesn’t appear that the Red Sox are overly enthusiastic about meeting his asking price.

Now, Red Sox officials usually shrug their shoulders when asked about Kimbrel’s future. If the righthander, who will turn 31 in May, would accept a contract of no more than three years in the neighborhood of his 2018 salary, the Red Sox likely would bring him back.

There’s speculation Kimbrel might return to the up-and-coming Atlanta Braves, where he started his career. The Cardinals, Nationals, and Phillies also are reportedly interested.

Kimbrel’s agent is already making a Scott Boras-like pitch to suitors, claiming that Kimbrel is the best closer of all-time. He’s up there, as he’s racked up more saves than anybody since the start of the 2010 season, but let’s snap back to reality. He’s got a long way to go before he could even be mentioned in the same breath as Mariano Rivera. I appreciate the ambitious effort, though.

There will always be a premium on power pitching at the backend of the bullpen, even more so if they have postseason experience, although I’m not sure Kimbrel did himself any favors this past postseason (he definitely didn’t). The benchmark for Kimbrel’s contract will likely be the five-year, $86 million deal that Aroldis Chapman signed to rejoin the Yankees prior to the 2017 season, and the five-year, $80 million deal that Kenley Jansen signed to remain with the Dodgers.

Kimbrel is entering his age-31 season, whereas Chapman and Jansen were both entering their age-29 seasons. There are obvious doubts that Kimbrel will land a five-year deal like Chapman and Jansen, but an average annual value around $16-17 million is certainly still in play. The Globe report mentions that the Red Sox might be interested in bringing Kimbrel back on a three-year deal with a salary similar to his 2018 figure, which was $13 million, but some team — likely multiple teams — will one thousand percent offer Kimbrel more than three years, $39 million.

If and when Kimbrel signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will have other options to replace Kimbrel as their closer from within the organization, free agency and perhaps even a trade, although that seems the unlikeliest route to take.