In Case You Haven't Noticed, the Patriots are Much Better Off Without Malcolm Butler
Remember a few weeks ago when you were watching the Patriots defense get gunned down by Blake Bortles and Matthew Stafford like so many Fallout 4 characters? Remember thinking that this was the same secondary that make Nick Foles look like he was playing with the God Mode cheat codes? Remember allowing yourself to believe that maybe this was the moment when Bill Belichick had lost the ability to make personnel decisions, let his emotions get in the way of his football judgment and finally gone a Free Agent Too Far?
Yeah, about that. We are now statistically speaking (rounding up) a third of the way through the season, and at this point it looks like he made exactly the right decisions in his defensive backfield.
I’ll admit I had some dark moments there as well. I let bad thoughts creep out of the deep recesses of my primitive reptilian brain stem and feared the worst. I spent more than a few sessions fully clothed in the shower with my knees pressed to my chest worried about a future of the same crew from Super Bowl LII. I wanted every last trace of the crew who failed so miserably wiped out, like an invasive species of weed we needed to eradicate. Even if it meant burning the crops then salting the fields so nothing would grow.
I got part of my wish when Jordan Richards and Johnson “Just Plain Bad” Bademosi were let go. But we still had Eric Rowe starting as a constant reminder, a living monument to the failure to make one stop last February. And we had Jason McCourty getting almost no reps at cornerback with the starters all through camp. Instead playing safety in the second half of preseason game surrounded by guys who today are driving Ubers or wearing pricing guns on their belts. And the talk of camp was that he wouldn’t survive the roster cutdown. Then the season opened with Malcolm Butler getting an early interception for Tennessee. And it looked for all the world that he’d respond to Mike Vrabel’s faith in him and one of the best contracts in the NFL by playing his ass off and sticking that ass in Belichick’s face until he got Pete Davidson eyes.
Again I say: About that …
Eric Rowe has been sidelined with a groin injury. Jason McCourty now makes up 50 percent of the Patriots starting defensive backs who’s first time running out a tunnel was Mrs. McCourty’s birth canal. And Malcolm Butler is one of the worst cornerbacks in football. Fact, not opinion.
From Pro Football Focus, here are where the Pats two starting corners grade out overall. Meaning both in pass coverage and stopping the run:
Where does Butler rank? He’s 58th overall. And his teammate whom the Titans signed away from New England last year, Logan Ryan, is 25th. Looking strictly into Butler in the passing game, here are his numbers and where he ranks among guys with 300+ snaps and 5 games played:
Completion percentage allowed: 71.9%, 2nd highest in the NFL. (Behind only Ryan’s 73.3%)
Targets: 32, 5th most
Receptions allowed: 23, 3rd most
Yards per reception allowed: 17.6, 2nd most
Touchdowns allowed: 4, tied for the most
Passer rating when targeted: 140.6, highest
By comparison, in 252 total snaps, Jason McCourty’s passer rating allowed is 62.3. The only corners with more reps and a lower passer rating against are Patrick Peterson, Morris Claiborne, Adoree’ Jackson, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Shaquill Griffin. Not exactly the worst company to be mentioned with. And for the record, Gilmore’s pass rating allowed is 83.5 and in an admittedly small sample size, JC Jackson’s is only 47.9.
And if you’re saying, “Well sure, Old Balls. You might have done some incredible research here, you’re a dashingly handsome silver fox and who creates feelings in us we ourselves do not understand. But you can’t argue on the basis of a few individual stats that this Patriots pass defense isn’t a giant, explosive blimp fire.” That’s exactly what I’m arguing:
That’s not me talking. That’s the numbers crunchers at Cris Collinsworth’s nerd sweat shop saying it. That as it stands, Brian Flores’s pass coverage grades out the third best in the league. And not a moment too soon, with the most prolific offense – passing and overall – coming to Foxboro this week. There is every legitimate reason to be concerned about the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, because they lead the league in every category. But you have to admit that the Patriots upgraded their pass defense this offseason. That they’re much better off with Jason McCourty. And that if they’d kept Butler and signed him to all the money it would’ve taken, they’d be screwed right now.
Right again, Belichick.
